I would caution that TV is make-believe, even when presented as fact. I include a link to consider.

Here is a link that might be useful: Research

I realize that TV is make believe, but I don't know anyone in real life that has ever done this.
Thanks for the link, that looks real informative.

If you've been watching flipping shows, then one that you need to watch is Property Ladder. Every single one of the episodes in this most recent season, the flipper has LOST money (in the last season, every flipper made tons of money) -- it's a sign of the changing market, IMO. Flipping is not for people who don't know what they're doing. And with the beginning of a downturn in the market right now, it's probably a really bad time to get started. The shows look all fun, and they give you good tips, but unless you're super organized, know a lot about construction, design, and real estate, then you'd be a fool to get into it, especially at this time, if you ask me. A year or two ago, you could have made money easily, especially in certain areas in Southern California (where a lot of the flipping shows are based). Nowadays, even the hardcore flippers are starting to get more cautious...

More information please. I think a lot depends on where you live. What is the market like? We sold our first rental house "as is" in July 2005. Our market started gradually tanking that fall. Our buyer said he was buying the house to live in long term with his wife. The house was 1650 sq.ft., in a great neighborhood, best school district, but very dated (1975). It needed to be painted inside, new carpeting, new window coverings, updated light fixtures etc. Most of all it reeked of cigarettes. It appraised "as is" for $265,000 by a professional appraiser and we sold it FSBO for $235,000. ($142.42 sq.ft) At the time, homes were selling for around $170-180 a sq.ft. in that area in turn key condition. In actuality, the buyer was buying the house to flip it. The buyer's father was a contractor and the two of them redid the house. Got rid of the smell, painted, refinished the cabinets, new tile counters, new carpet, mini blinds, light fixtures, etc and listed it with a realtor in the fall 2005 for $325,000.00. The house was overpriced and the new owner kept dropping the price in $5,000 increments every month. He finally got down to $300,000 but by then prices had taken a nosedive. He took the home off the market in April 2006 and is renting it. (he and his wife separated during the process) I feel really bad for him that this investment didn't work out in the short term but I feel that it will long term. (he still emails us occasionally) Before you flip a property, like I said, you must really know your market and be in an area where homes are appreciating and not rapidly declining.

I live in central Arkansas.
I've read through the link below, and it seems like we're still in an uptrend for housing prices.

Here is a link for reports for the rest of the country if anyone is interested:
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/pages/MetroHomePriceAnalysisReports?OpenDocument

Here is a link that might be useful: Little Rock House Pricing Analysis

I just read the Chicago area home price analysis report from the National Association of Realtors that was included in your link above and I have to say they are way off in the Chicagoland market. They expect an increase in home value for q1 2006 of around 8%y/y. Take a look at real estate futures at the Merc and they're forecasting a 6%-8% drop in home values for our region in 2006. Also, coupled with the most recent remarks from the chief economist at the NAR, I believe they are completly biased and blowin smoke up the publics A$$.

To get a non-Realtor perspective on the real estate market, you might want to spend some time reading the blog listed below.

Here is a link that might be useful: Housing Bubble blog

Just FYI, the homes on Property Ladder are professionally staged (with some GORGEOUS furniture and accessories, mind you) and those costs are never included in the financials, so keep that in mind.

When flipping you make your money on the buying side.

Best of luck if you choose to give it a go,

Nat

I noticed on the more recent episodes of "Flip that house" they don't show how much the house sells for. They just have a real estate agent give a really inflated guesstimate.
There is no such thing as easy money... unless of course you're a low budget, basic cable network in need of something to broadcast. Plenty of flippers floppin around to film.

I think in some areas of the country it might be possible to still do this, but on a smaller scale. I'm acquainted with a guy who does this in rural Michigan, not as a full-time occupation, but as a side business. He's able to buy houses for as little as 10k there, really falling down places, and then can do some maintenance/repair and re-sell for 40k.

So it's not the 100k or more that we see on the tv shows. I watch those shows too and wish I'd got into it sooner. No way to do it in SoCal now. Maybe possible in the next state I'll be in (Oregon) but only in certain areas.

Of all the shows, I like Property Ladder the best because Kirsten gives good, solid advice that any homeowner can use.

Just FYI, the homes on Property Ladder are professionally staged (with some GORGEOUS furniture and accessories, mind you) and those costs are never included in the financials, so keep that in mind.

Yep -- the Property Ladder show covers the cost of that staging, actually. Of the houses so far shown this season on Property Ladder, most of them have not sold yet. I read a forum that follows the show pretty closely, down to finding the listings on realtor.com. After capital gains, closing fees, realtors fees, etc. the flippers from this season of Property Ladder are going to make little to no profit, and in some cases are probably going to lose money.

I noticed on the more recent episodes of "Flip that house" they don't show how much the house sells for.

Yep, that's the other problem. No way to know how much the house actually sells for. So Flip That House is "selling" flipping as this huge potential profit maker in most cases, but we have no way of knowing how much money those houses actually made.

If you watch Property Ladder, and Flip That House, 90% of the flips take place in SoCal -- and most of the filming was done over the past 2 - 6 months. Our market was slowly starting to tank (and is still tanking) over that time period, which you're starting to see in these episodes, at least in Property Ladder (Flip That House won't bother to show it to you; or maybe the fact that they don't tell you what it sold for is a sign of that trend).

I think the only way you could really do this is if you know your local real estate market very well. If you don't know it well enough on your own, and are using outside sources to judge the trends, then that's your answer as to whether or not you should be doing this. It's equivilent to jumping into the stock market with $150,000 with zero knowledge and experience -- is that a risk you're prepared to take?

"Just FYI, the homes on Property Ladder are professionally staged (with some GORGEOUS furniture and accessories, mind you) and those costs are never included in the financials, so keep that in mind."

Actually, we've got that part covered.
My partner owns a furniture import business and my wife does interior decorating. ;)

As for the huge profits....in my area $30K to $40K would be good enough. 2 or 3 of those a year and we'd be set.

Doesn't EVERYONE in SoCal wind up being a flipper at some point? That's how you move up the ladder there.
(Click on my page and see the link to the topic "How does anyone afford to live in california" for futher details)

You might find some *other* flipper who now has to sell his "investment" because he is upside down on the house -- house worth less than his mortgage, which has an ARM adjusting ever upward.

I'd look for a big drop in home prices through 2007. Would not buy anything as an investment today.

All in the purchase price. DDD. You have to watch the closing costs, taxes (property and income after selling), and realtor fees. We like to move every couple of years - in a way - flip our own house. This way you can deduct the taxes, and you also get to live in a newly renovated house every couple of years. I think having a real estate license would also help control the costs.

Happy - if you choose to go forward, please share your experiences with us! It would be great to have our own "read along flipping show"!!! :-D As far as staging goes, it seems you have it covered! (Please be sure you can handle the carrying costs for an extended period of time just in case, I can't even begin to count the people I've come across that are in trouble because of unexpected long term carrying costs!)

Minet - Kirsten is definitely a fountain of knowledge. I just shake my head and brace myself when people don't listen to her.

Rivkdr - I would LOVE a link to that forum.

If you're making long term investments, IMHO it's time to buy, buy, buy, there are deals to be had! If your looking for quick turn around at a profit without buying amazingly low, then I agree that you must proceed with extreme caution!

Nat

acoreana, see the link below. Be warned, the site is exactly as its name sounds -- people dissect television shows...without pity. It's my favorite place for certain shows like LOST and reality tv shows...so many thoughtful and intelligent opinons. And rarely censored. Which means be prepared for a certain amount of swearing and rudeness in some cases (although in the Property Ladder forum, I haven't seen much of that).

Here is a link that might be useful: Television Without Pity

I just checked back in today, and saw the link, will be clicking and checking out ASAP! Thank you.

I was wondering how you were making out, happy. Please keep us posted.

Nat

acoreana is right. You make your money when you buy the house not when you sell.

I think it is a terrible time to consider something like this but you need to look into this for yourself.

The key is identifying the house. If you can find a house that you can purchase, fix and sell for a profit then more power to you but make sure you keep these things in mind:

Factor in about -10% market appreciation (that's right negative because that is the direction of the market)

Multiply your expected repair costs by at least 1.5 if not 2.

Multiply the DOM by 1.5 or 2 to calculate carying expenses AFTER you fix it. Consider it will take about 2x as long to fix it as you anticipate.

Don't forget the realtor fees. Also you may need to pay closing costs to get it sold.

If you factor all that in and you can still make a reasonable profit then go for it.

The problem isn't that you can't do it. The problem is that you will need to find a house priced low enough to make it work and they just aren't readily available.

Even if anyone here knew how to make money flipping houses, they shouldn't share that knowledge. It makes it harder on themselves to buy low, and it also makes the market full of speculation that prices out first time buyers.

I, for one, look down my nose at speculators and I encourage others to do the same.

I hate house flipping for personal reasons- we live in (and almost bought) a house that was purchased and redone by house flippers, and it's painfully obvious. Because of this experience, I would NEVER buy a house that had been owned for a short period of time for fear of what would happen after the house had been occupied for a while.

I am sure that it's not true of all house flippers, but the people who tried to flip the current property we live in did a mediocre job with everything. All stainless steel appliances in the kitchen, but the cheapest they could buy; new cabinets, but bottom-of-the-line; crappy paint jobs (poor prep and it's peeling now); cheap flooring materials (the hardwood (not pergo) in the kitchen is dented in several areas from very minor incidents).

The people who bought it tried to flip it, but couldn't sell, so we're renting. We had considered buying and thank God we didn't- after we'd been in a few months it was clear they cut a lot of corners. If you're really going to do a great job, then more power to you. But, I think house flipping has a very poor reputation now due to people doing shoddy work on the improvements to save money and time, and I would be careful. Many wise buyers avoid houses that are being flipped.

Well, the secrets out...just look at all the TV shows based on just that.

I like hearing about real life experiences, and am thrilled when someone buys the eyesore, and makes it inhabitable again, whether it's for their family, or an other's. (Hopefully, up to par, shame on those who don't!)

Unfortunately, right now, I know several people who went the investing in new construction route instead and are now stuck with either taking losses in order to sell, being landlords, or paying long term carrying costs. Yikes. Hope it turns around for them ASAP.

Nat

Go for it!
Someone with more money and experience will buy you out adyou can take a loss.
If you are lucky the damage to your wallet and credit rating will be minimal.

I think someone a few blocks from me is flipping a house.
It was on the market for months. They changed real estate agents, and the sold sign went up a few weeks later. After a couple of months with no one moving in the sold sign came down and it was for sale again. More months. Finally sold, and within a few weeks there was a transformation. New windows, new paint, new garage door, new front door, and from the pictures on the web it appears the kitchen got some upgrades. It is now for sale again, a couple of months after the last time it sold, and they are asking a hefty new price. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to sell, especially with winter coming up. I don't think our area is a good one for flipping, but I am waiting to be proven wrong.
Abbey

I've been flipping/investing since about 2001. I've never seen HGTV (don't have cable or anything like that). Prices are falling like a rock here, which leads to a lot of really great opportunities for buy/hold scenarios. I generally have done mostly really, really ugly houses (red-tagged by the city), although I have done a couple short-sales with banks.

Want to talk about it some more? Or email me?

We're listing my house for $200-300k more than I bought it for 4 years ago. Yep--flipping. I paid very little because the house was WEIRD and had very down-scale fittings. Now it's all tile, hardwood, granite, stainless steel, a 500 sqft addition, etc--for a LOT less than you'd imagine. Because of the location, the area is very hot right now, but the housing prices are quite variable. Crappy houses are selling at $105-115 sqft, and nice ones are selling at $125-160 sqft. I bought mine for $66 sqft.

If I were doing this professionally (I knew it was a huge deal when I got the house but intended to remodel to LIVE there), I'd mostly choose less labor-intensive properties that are just UGLY and have a couple of really weird deal-killers that are easy to fix.

Well, we've found a house to flip.
It belongs to my wifes grandparents.
They want a about 27K for it.
It's a 1923, 1500 sq foot, 2 bed one bath that needs some updating.
Nice corner lot with good curb appeal.
Central Heat and Air (10 year old unit)

Here are the issues however.
Needs: New roof, new subfloor, several new floor joists, more foundation peirs and some floor leveling, new kitchen, new bathroom, new carpet, new paint, new appliances, new kitchen sink, power washing the aluminum siding (which is in very good shape).

Besides the things that need to be fixed, it's also not in the best neighborhood. Not a gangbanging drive by kind of neighborhood, but not really affluent either.

My partner and I think we'd end up having to put about $12k into it for the work and repairs.
The comps in the area are anywhere from $50k to $67K for similar houses.

If we were to get around $55k for the place and stayed on budget, my partner and I would split the profits 50/50. About $8k each.

What do you all think?

Your list of 'needs new' is awfully long for only $12k. How did you come up w/ that number?

I should have said that the #'s are estimated.
However, a lot of the work/labor will be done by us.
The roof will run about $4k.
We're in the process of getting firm estimates for the work that we can't do ourselves.
We don't plan on putting the most expensive materials into this.
The neighborhood isn't the kind for high end flips.
This house will be sold to a lower/mid class family.
Where I live, the costs are less than seen on the coasts.

Don't forget to add these costs to your budget:
*Closing costs for purchase
*Cost for taxes and homeowners insurance while you are fixing up and selling it. Since it will be vacant, your insurance is likely to cost more.
*Cost for mortgage that you pay each month while you are fixing up/selling it.
*Cost for permits
*Cost for dumpster
*Cost to sell(this could be realtor commission or if you sell FSBO, your cost for signs, advertising, etc)
*Cost to cut lawn while you own it.
*Cost for monthly utilities while you are fixing up/selling. Plus one time utility fees to start service.
*Delivery costs and sales tax for the large materials that you will purchase, such as cabinets, appliances, floor joists, etc.
*Landscaping (new shrubs, or some trees or flowers)

My answers to these are in ( )'s.

*Closing costs for purchase (included in budget)
*Cost for taxes and homeowners insurance while you are fixing up and selling it. Since it will be vacant, your insurance is likely to cost more. (paid for by inlaws)
*Cost for mortgage that you pay each month while you are fixing up/selling it. (house is owned by inlaws)
*Cost for permits (included in budget)
*Cost for dumpster (included in budget)
*Cost to sell(this could be realtor commission or if you sell FSBO, your cost for signs, advertising, etc) (included in budget)
*Cost to cut lawn while you own it. (why pay when I can do this myself. It's not a real big yard)
*Cost for monthly utilities while you are fixing up/selling. Plus one time utility fees to start service. (paid for by inlaws)
*Delivery costs and sales tax for the large materials that you will purchase, such as cabinets, appliances, floor joists, etc. (My partner has a big truck so no fees there)
*Landscaping (new shrubs, or some trees or flowers) (Landscape already in real good condition.)

We're listing my house for $200-300k more than I bought it for 4 years ago

I wouldn't consider selling a house 4 years after purchase to be "flipping". Most flippers don't even live in the houses. Flippers generally own the house for less than 6 months.

Just found out that the house we want to flip needs a new roof. 4 layers of shingles and some bad decking.
Sooooo, we're probably not going to filp this house.

4 years is a very long flip. Flippers get in quick and get out quick hence the term flippers. I'm not sure I'd consider a 4 year flip a flip either.

Uhhhhh....that's LAYERS, not YEARS.
There are 4 layers of shingles on the roof.

They're responding to someone who posted earlier.

4 layers of shingles means you'd definitely have to remove them. So, more expense.

Oh well. Maybe the next one.

Flipping Homes can be a huge money maker, but remember, the people who do it on TV are EXPERIENCED and have knowledge learned through being in the business. Notice how they all seem to have the ability to make repairs, they have the sales team on hand and the contractors on call for any renovations they make. You NEED a similar TEAM. If you are just starting out, I would highly recommend making the investment in an information package, many are available, and the cost is tax deductable as a business expense- one of the best ones that I have seen is being offered at Flip Homes USA Network. Check it out, take the time to learn some fundamentals of the business, then put it IN PRACTICE. Don't suffer from Analysis Paralysis. The FHUSAN program is comprehensive- it comes in at just under 300 pages. I recommend you read through it, then read through it again and take notes- use the forms in the Appendix to make your Business Binder and GET OUT THERE AND DO IT! It's extremely fulfilling to get your first check doing this- I know, FROM EXPERIENCE. You will be hooked. Plus, if you love the work involved, then you will have found a job that you can DO ANYWHERE at ANYTIME. Real Estate is always a profitable business and will continue to be. Just don't expect results without an investment of time and effort.

Here is a link that might be useful: Flip Homes USA Network

Hmmmmm......sounds like Spam to me.....

Anyone else suspicious?

If you doubt my sincerity in helping people to avoid the pitfalls in flipping homes, just email me- carledwards@gmail.com with ANY questions you have about this business. My company, Flip Homes USA Network DOES sell a $50 book package on this subject, and I am MORE than HAPPY to show you how it's the BEST $50 you'll spend. That's the cost of ONE ineffective AD in a newspaper and less than the cost of a weeks gas driving around looking at properties when you don't know what your looking for. I cannot overstate how important it is for anyone new to flipping to LEARN the FUNDAMENTALS. I WILL ALWAYS offer any assistance and answer and specific questions about flipping to the best of my ability/experience, however, the basic underlying principles of the business should be studied too- it makes our realtionship much more lucrative for YOU. Please take me up on my offer if you suspect I am SPAMMING, you will find that I'm happy to share my knowledge for FREE. Please Email carledwards@gmail.com with any questions/scenerios you may have, I will do my best to assist you.

Here is a link that might be useful: Flip Homes USA Network

I guess that you didn't read the Instructions for posting on this forum.

Instructions

* Before posting a message, make sure you have chosen the most appropriate forum from the list. Off-topic posts will be deleted at our discretion.
* You may want to Search to see if your question has already been answered by another user.
* Since the subject line of your message is indexed for searching, try to include important keywords in the subject. Do not post messages with subject lines in all capitals or consisting of simple subjects like "Help!"
* Posting a message is a two step process. You will first have a chance to preview your message and verify its contents.
* After posting your message, you may need to reload the forum page in order to see it listed.
* html codes are allowed in the message field only.
* No advertising is allowed in any of the forums.
* All posted material becomes the property of this site.
* A special test forum has been provided if you just want to see how the forums work.
* See the Help Page if you are having problems or have further questions.

Good point, and no, I'm sorry to everyone here, I didnt. However, I do want to continue to contribute to this forum, and I won't be adding my URL. My offer still stands and is open, so if you wish to start a dialog, please don't hesitate to email me or post your question here.

The dump, I mean house, across the street was purchased by flippers for $65k. I would guess they spent no more than $15k and had it on the market 2 months later for $140k. It's been 2 months and I really think they are overpriced and the house should be listed for $125k. Even still, that's about a $30k profit. Pretty good in my area, Central TX.

To Happy.. and others considering a flip.

To get a good idea of what the repairs in a place will run (a national average anyways) use a calculator like one at:
Service Magic.

Calculate what the Roof, etc. each will cost, then add minimum 10% to that. Also, if you hire contractors, BE SURE to add a penalty for work not performed ON TIME. In Flipping TIME=MONEY, since you have to make payments for as long as it takes. IF you can do the work yourself, even better, just be sure to account for your Labor costs (aka- pay yourself to do it).

Here is a link that might be useful: Service Magic Website

hey, flipping does work. and still does, even in so. calif. the house across the street from my in-laws in so. calif. needed tons of work. I tried to get my FIL to buy it and flip it since he's retired and has built houses before. but he didn't want to risk it.

the flippers who did buy it really scored. they paid $420K for the house and it just sold for $680K. all they did was a fresh coat of paint outside, new carpet and paint inside and a new roof. which couldn't cost THAT much on a 1,300-sq-ft house with simple rooflines.

So a $260K profit in a few months, minus real estate fees and their materials (they did the work themselves.) That leaves at least $200K, right? (It sold for 4% commission, so $27K went to realtor fees.)

Then take off the taxes (it sounds like they sold it before it could be considered a residence) and divide by the number of people involved. Of course Flipping is a money maker- its not just picking any old house, though, these people were obviously intelligent enough to see a $680K house in $420K condition. This has a lot to do with location.

Of course, they may have 1031'd it so they didn't have to pay taxes. :)

I don't know about the people picking a great house or anything. My in-laws live in a rundown neighborhood in socal that used to be nice but is now gang infested. I wouldn't walk on the streets before or after dark. yet these people bought that house and made quite a bit of money very fast. heck, I even saw the investment potential in that one and tried to get my inlaws to buy it. but they didn't want to risk their hardearned money (also gained in real estate sales over the years but by buying houses and renting them out, not flipping) on it. they're very old school.

Flipping works still if you know your area and your limits. If you haven't done it before, starting small is not a bad way to begin, you'll learn a lot and yes, maybe even make a small amount.

Conversely, if you don't know the local RE market, you can get skunked real fast, really hard. A friend who has an LLC with his 2 kids and their spouses, have been flipping houses for 4 years now. They agree with me that right now is the bottom of the local RE market and (barring any really bad global news) prices will start to turn up again for SFH (single family homes) - IN OUR AREA. Why? There are no big developers building 3,000 SFH nearby. There's not enough cheap buildable land within 20 miles of the Pacific Ocean. There's land, but it's expensive. A 25x100' empty lot in the city/county of San Francisco will cost you $400,000.

The bad news is in the condo market; around here it went gangbusters for a few years but the big developers did their usual let's-go-overboard and built huge projects with several thousand overpriced lofts each. Out here condos cost more than SFH but have worse resale history, so combined with the developers' ability to cut their profit margins from 100% down to 20%, the big price declines are happening to condos and unimproved, poorly maintained SFHs.

It makes the average selling prices here look like they're taking a big hit, when actually, well maintained SFHs have gone down very little, percentage-wise.

I view this recent craze into the "you can never lose money on RE" the same way I view the typical stock market investor who ends up buying high and selling low. In both cases people get stampeded by media stories on fads that have already passed their peak. Buying low and selling high takes discipline, and the research to catch trends as they start, not when they expire.

JKOM- You are in the SF Bay then I take it? That's an interesting perspective- and I'm in Sacramento, so the market here has flattened, although I see an opportunity in the SFH market as well. What markets specifically within our local area (aside from the CITY of SF) do you see similar trends? Do you feel the Penisula is over-built?