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Years supply of listings

Posted by deee (My Page) on
Mon, May 17, 10 at 8:42

We are looking for a primary home in a resort area that has been badly hit by the real estate implosion. Our previous home is finally under contract and now we have to take the next step. We don't have to buy right away but it would save the hassle of moving twice, paying for storage and the worry about interest rates.

I read a local real estate blog/analysis that calculates "years supply of listings" or the number of listings divided by the previous month's sales. It started at 2.8 earlier this year and is now about 2.2.

The supply of houses concerns me as well as the large amount of bank owned homes and their effect on future sales prices.

We aren't concerned about getting in at the very bottom but we don't want to throw caution to the wind.

Buy or sit??? Thanks for reading.


Follow-Up Postings:

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RE: Years supply of listings

How long do you plan to stay in the house you would buy?


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RE: Years supply of listings

Well, my crystal ball says .......

Despite all the hype to the contrary, there is no "right" time to buy a house. It completely depends on your situation and your finances.


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RE: Years supply of listings

Graywings - We don't plan on moving anytime soon. But, my husband works on an industry where moving is common. I know it doesn't really answer your question but you bring up a valid consideration.

billl - I don't care if I buy at the right time, I just don't want to buy at the wrong time. :)


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RE: Years supply of listings

Well, for one thing, the 'year's' supply of houses needs to be qualified, because depending on where you live (Phoenix vs N. Dakota) there is either still a bad glut of empty or foreclosed houses, or not enough to go around, so keep that in mind. Also, while the market is much better than 1-2 years ago, there are signs that because of problems in Europe, it may well start going down again, and I imagine house prices would follow, so again, something to consider. This is definitely no time for crystal balls, just clear thinking and paying attention. But that being said, if you find your 'dream home' at a price you can afford, I would not dither around too much after all about just buying it, unless it is priced ridiculously higher than anything else around the area.


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RE: Years supply of listings

If you are betting on housing prices going up in the next 2 years, then it would be the "wrong" time for you to buy a house in a resort area. Short term speculation on realestate is usually a bad idea. It costs a lot of money to buy and sell houses and the carrying costs are significant.

If you've always wanted to live in a resort area and are going to stay for 10+ years, not would be a great time to buy. Will it be even "greater" 6 months from now? Who knows! Lots of experts have opinions, but they don't really know what is going to happen. If they did, they would be getting rich following their own advice instead of trying to sell their advice to others.


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RE: Years supply of listings

There's alot of things in your post to consider. The time you are going to stay is one BUT also what do you define as a resort area?
Lake front property in some little community not far from work or are you talking a place on a beach someplace? In real estate location is EVERYTHING.
There's a huge difference in buying beach front property as opposed to a home in the hills of a snow resort area that's livelyhood is dependent on the amount of snow you get each year.
It also depends in what price range you are looking to buy into and just how easily you can get around during the peak season in the resort area.
It does no good to buy in a resort area if half the year you feel like you are under attack from those out side the community.
IMHO there's alot more to research about living in a resort area than there is in buying a home in Anytown, USA.


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RE: Years supply of listings

If you're really concerned about the possibility of the market falling further, you need to wait until the downturn is clearly and obviously over.

They call trying to time the market "knife catching" for a reason -- if you're as risk-adverse as you seem to be, you not only need to not try and catch a falling knife, but also wait until it sticks in the ground and stops quivering.


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RE: Years supply of listings

depending on where the "resort location" is
would you consider holding this property--if you really like it--and keep it as second home after/if you are transferred again...
maybe make it your retirement home...

if you would then this price vs selling in two years might not be so important
and frankly if the market gets worse in two years--
no one is going to be selling a home cause there likely won't be any buyers...


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