Return to the Buying and Selling Homes Forum | Post a Follow-Up

 o
What do you see happening in 2011?

Posted by jane__ny (My Page) on
Mon, Jan 3, 11 at 22:36

The 'experts' say two different things - housing prices will continue to decline - housing prices have bottomed and will rebound.

In my area of NY I see high priced houses still selling although lower but not that much. I'm surprise at how close to list price they are selling for.

Mid priced houses are also selling but there are many more of them listed. They also appear to be selling about 10% off list.

The lower priced, smaller homes seem to be sitting the longest. They also appear to be over-priced compared to the mid-priced houses. There are many more lower-priced homes listed.

Wondering what others are seeing in their areas.

Jane


Follow-Up Postings:

 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

Homes are still increasing in value in my area - there was never any big bubble here, just steady increases every year. My house was appraised a year ago when I separated, and again a month ago as I'm deciding if I should sell. It has increased about 5% from last year, and 15% from 4 years ago. So I would think this will continue - slow but steady increases in house values (statistically borne out, so it's not just wishful thinking on my part!)


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

Our area never plummeted in price.... so I expect good things in the future.

"Homes are still increasing in value in my area - there was never any big bubble here, just steady increases every year."

Describes my area too!


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

Just keep in mind, folks, that what a house is appraised for and what it may sell for are two different numbers. In our area of NC, where demand has fallen off, the difference between the two can be breathtaking. (And not in a positive way.)

I think the market will get harder for sellers as those owners who have held out for better prices and those who have held their homes off the market waiting for better prices finally run short of options, either because of unemployment, dwindling reserves/income, or panic at a worsening market, and are forced to add to the inventory of homes looking for vanishing buyers. This certainly won't be true for some stable-demand areas, like commuter communities near NY, the San Francisco Bay Area, etc. But I believe a lot of other regions will be affected negatively before things turn around.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

I agree with shenandoah. I foresee another wave of short sales and foreclosures as expenses keep going up but incomes do not.

So far this technical economic recovery has been pretty much jobless, so it's not like people are going to be able to move around to make more money. In fact, in light of the budget crunches coming in many state/county/municipal governments and in light of the coming GOP "starvation diet", I'm guessing many people simply will continue to hunker down for as long as they can.

Gasoline at $4-5 per gallon isn't going to help, either. When gas closed in on $4 last time, RE sales in outlying suburbs here in Minneapolis/Saint Paul took a considerable hit as people suddenly started adding a few hundred dollars to the cost of the mortgage to account for the fuel they'd be burning to commute.

As expenses go up and more jobs disappear, those folks outside of the highest- and lowest-priced homes who still have houses to sell -- especially houses with unresolvable defects in design, location, etc. -- will find themselves unable to keep paying that mortgage while the house is on the market, and more of them will go short or foreclose, leading to even more price pressure.

The ironic thing is that lenders and some RE agents will tell you that the prices of properties which are not distressed have not fallen that much over the past couple of years. But if I'm buying and a clean short/foreclosure is available a few doors down from the house I'm looking at, I'd be a fool not to consider it. It does have an impact in the real world of buyers.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

Re: "Just keep in mind, folks, that what a house is appraised for and what it may sell for are two different numbers." I'm well aware of this, and asked my agent for a selling-tomorrow valuation (and she wanted to list right away to do just that). My FIL was a RE agent, and he always said "asking and getting aren't the same!".

Statistically - in Ottawa - selling prices are increasing year after year. Which makes it tough for me, because I'd want to buy again after selling...


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

There's a large number of homes that are in limbo land right now because of the way banks did business. Those houses once the paperwork has been cleared up are going to flood the market and drop prices even more in some areas.
It's going to continue to be a buyers market for at least another four to six years.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

How about this?

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/PPSILCCQ/PR


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

I gave up after about 15 minutes... the guy never seems to get to the point!

I do agree that the US is in BIG trouble because of its approach in spending, in particular under Bush (e.g. Iraq). But much of his argument is flawed because he explains how the increased price of gas will have a major impact -- well, we pay a lot more in Canada, and are doing very well, thank you. And he compares Britain in the 1970s to a future US... he is clearly not a historian, there is not any way to compare. And his discussion of price controls... his examples don't apply to price controls in Canada in the 1970s.

Basically, I didn't make it to the end - his basic premise that because the US owes too much there will be dire consequences is not a big surprise. If anyone makes it through his presentation, let me know what his "fix" is.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

I am not saying his predictions are right or wrong... just very interesting.
His predictions are based upon the fact that the US Dollar is going to be devalued so much, that no country is wanting to invest with it. Also, he predicts that the US Dollar will be replaced as the International Currency. If this happens, I believe most of his predictions would happen.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

In some areas of FL, property values have dropped approx 50% since the high point. There are stull many foreclosures and short sales on the market and anyone selling "normal" is up against those properties - which are often very, very good deals.

Investors have started buying properties that are great deals within the past 6-12 months. Kind of an investment buying frenzy but only for great deals. Some investors have been fixing them up slightly and reselling for a profit and there are buyers for these, since they are often still fairly good deals when fixed up(else they don't sell if priced too high).

One good thing about all this - real estate taxes have gone down for many folks. A few years ago, when the prices escalated rapidly, high real estate taxes was a big complaint and some folks didn't buy due to the high taxes.

But since the taxes are based on property value, tax bills generally have gone down as well. So now taxes are decent, property values are low enough so that homes are a good value. This is bringing in buyers (often retirees from other states) that crossed FL off the list a few years ago.

Builders are starting to build a few more homes in new subdivisions (those that didn't go under), but volume nothing like before. But at least there is some progress compared to last year or two. These new homes are much lower priced than a few years ago. Thinking this is the very early phase of things picking back up, slightly and slowly.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

It would be a pretty big deal if the US$ is replaced as the international currency... is it to be replaced by the Chinese Yuan, or did he say? ;-)

I also totally agree that many Americans are ignorant and complacent about this massive debt - on another forum I'm on, some individuals believed that more $ were owed to the US, than the US owing elsewhere!

I was hopeful when Obama came in, but his hands are tied, and nothing will really get accomplished that anyone will agree to. The politicians need to take tough measures (drop the space program, get out of the War business, stop bailing out failed companies). They're spending money they don't have!!

Because we're more regulated & have been more fiscally prudent, it's easy to be smug here on the sidelines in Canada. But our current government is spending like crazy, ballooning the debt, which has to get paid off sometime. (Canada had NO deficit from 1997-2004, allowing actual debt to be paid down) You'd think our current gov't would learn by watching the US, but apparently not.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

One good thing about all this - real estate taxes have gone down for many folks. A few years ago, when the prices escalated rapidly, high real estate taxes was a big complaint and some folks didn't buy due to the high taxes.

But since the taxes are based on property value, tax bills generally have gone down as well. So now taxes are decent, property values are low enough so that homes are a good value. This is bringing in buyers (often retirees from other states) that crossed FL off the list a few years ago.

This can't be entirely true,as values decline,perhaps assessed value does also,but it won't be long before the 'tax rate' increases to account for lower assessed values..towns/states need to have revenue to operate,so to think lower home prices will 'net' lower taxes for purchasers is only temporary


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

In regards to the stansberry research "guy", at the end he is saying there are 4 things for everyone to do to protect themselves from this "collapse of the dollar" and he will give it to you free IF you purchase his monthly newsletter for $50 per month! I did a little research on stansberry and they are not regarded very highly by the BBB. Another forum on investing said that once you start getting the newsletter you are offered more info but have to "bump" up the price to learn that info!! What a racket!!! Of course, what he says has some truth to it but it's just a scam!!


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

But since the taxes are based on property value, tax bills generally have gone down as well.

I want to move where you guys live! (j/k) Around here, property values have gone down, but the tax rate has gone up because government expenses haven't gone down. Costs just as much to fight a fire or plow a street in the fancy neighborhoods as the cheap ones and those costs haven't gone down. So my tax bill really hasn't changed much at all from pre-crash levels. :-(


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

I would be very surprised if Fl. taxes have gone down. Like others have said, all they do is increase the tax rate.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

Higher interest rates, more foreclosures, stable to slight improvement in employment, stable stock market. RE prices down 5%, new construction declining.

Around here (a very stable area), we were still climbing until 2008 and we have backed off 5-10% since then. Sales are very slow and prices are falling more. My neighborhood might be off 20% from peak which occurred later than rest of country in 2008.

Beach around here is just about 50% off 2007 peak with about 20% to go.

Just being a forecaster - I could easily be wrong.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

Well, some "experts" predict 11 million more foreclosures
in 2011. That is alot more than has already taken place to date.
When you really think about it, it is a good thing.
Home prices were unsustainable by 2005 when it peaked.
US incomes couldn't afford what the average home had been priced to.
Now, unfortunately, the housing market is going to have to
reach a reasonable price for the average person, or people just won't be able to own a home anymore.
Really, it's cut and dry, and actaully good for most homeowners who have to let their homes go to forclosure because they are spending up to 50 percent of their bring home pay jsut to stay in a home they can't afford.
When they are out from under that mortgage, they have more income left at the end of the month because it's cheaper to rent than to buy.
Home prices will decline to the point that people can afford to buy them. Period.
That is what 2011 is going to be like, painful for sellers, and I would wait to 2012 or 2013 to buy.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

While I don't claim to know all the "ins and outs" of all the foreclosures in this country, why is it when a person has a job and they own a home but they have gone "upside down" in their equity(don't know if that is the correct term), they can just "walk away" from their mortgage? AND, why can't the mortgage companies "settle" with these people to work out some kind of payment plan? I know at least 2 people who have done this. One person I know of makes really good money and has walked away from their home and now rents a beautiful home on a lake! It seems to me the banks would want to get some money rather than none?! I don't see how our economy can withstand all these foreclosures!!! Why can't these banks "restructure" these loans so that people can stay in their homes?


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

People cannot just "walk away" from their mortgages. People with mortgages signed contracts stating that, if they did not make the payments, they would lose their house to the lender. They also ding their own credit rating big-time for 3-7 years, depending on whether the property went to short sale or foreclosure, and some states will tax as income the difference between what is owed and what the property is sold for. There's no painless exit.

There is, however, a growing number of people who bought late into the bubble or refinanced to repair/improve their houses or to pay medical or education bills (not to buy fancy cars or boats or vacations) who have done the math and realized that they will never have a serious chance at making up the difference -- not without putting their retirement savings or their ability to cover other future expenses at serious risk. This is true especially when retirement or disability or other continuing costs shorten the horizon. And sometimes staying put is not an option. So people are exercising the provisions of their contracts and giving their houses back to the lenders. This economic disaster was not of their creation -- they were good borrowers to start with but now have an asset that no business would continue to pay for and they will have other (big) bills to pay. So here are the keys. It still will hurt.

And finally -- take it from someone who has purchased two foreclosures and is looking at a third -- most mortgage lenders (even the small ones) don't seem to know their backsides from their elbows. Mortgage lenders in the U.S. are a convoluted mess of too many people who touch the paper and none of them seem to work with each other. I strongly suspect there are corporate-tax reasons to let a property go to foreclosure -- more of a write-off or something -- because there certainly does not seem to be any drive on lenders' parts to get what money they can. There are a number of lenders who won't even talk to you unless you're behind on your payments.

It's frustrating, on both ends.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

We've been trying to buy a home the last few months. I'm amazed at the incompetence we've encountered at the some of the banks.

We are currently trying to put an offer on a foreclosure. Per the agent, we need a prequal letter and it has to be from Wells Fargo (the owner). That's fine, but it has been four days and we can't get anyone at Wells Fargo to do a letter! Spoke two two people who couldn't/wouldn't do the letter, sent two emails via their mortgage website and left three messages for other folks.

This is the second time we've tried to put an offer on an foreclosure and both times it has seemed that the banks are trying to do everything in their power NOT to sell the house.


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

"This is the second time we've tried to put an offer on an foreclosure and both times it has seemed that the banks are trying to do everything in their power NOT to sell the house."

Banks make more money by NOT foreclosing on homes. Banks are dragging out the foreclosure process for their own selfish reasons. Until the day they foreclose, the amount of money owed to them is an asset...sure, it's an asset that isn't paying interest payments...but it is still an asset. The day they foreclose, a $400,000 asset could become a $150,000 asset and a $250,000 loss.

Multiply that loss by 10, 20, or even 30 times leverage and there are several million dollars worth of new loans that the bank can't make.

On that note, I've been reading that lenders are poised to take back more homes this year than any other since the U.S. housing meltdown began in 2006. About 5 million borrowers are at least two months behind on their mortgages and more will miss payments as they struggle with job losses and loans worth more than their home's value, industry analysts forecast.

"2011 is going to be the peak," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac Inc. The firm predicts 1.2 million homes will be repossessed this year by lenders.

I will be curious to see how it all shakes out.

A link that might be useful:
www.observer.com/2011/real-estate/2010-set-foreclosure-record-2011-bound-top-it


 o
RE: What do you see happening in 2011?

The "weaker" borrowers were shaken out in 2009/2010. The shorts and foreclosures you'll see now are (were) people with good credit who finally ran out of money (job loss, unemployment ran out, etc.) or time. :-(


 o Post a Follow-Up

Please Note: Only registered members are able to post messages to this forum.

    If you are a member, please log in.

    If you aren't yet a member, join now!


Return to the Buying and Selling Homes Forum

Information about Posting

  • You must be logged in to post a message. Once you are logged in, a posting window will appear at the bottom of the messages. If you are not a member, please register for an account.
  • Please review our Rules of Play before posting.
  • Posting is a two-step process. Once you have composed your message, you will be taken to the preview page. You will then have a chance to review your post, make changes and upload photos.
  • After posting your message, you may need to refresh the forum page in order to see it.
  • Before posting copyrighted material, please read about Copyright and Fair Use.
  • We have a strict no-advertising policy!
  • If you would like to practice posting or uploading photos, please visit our Test forum.
  • If you need assistance, please Contact Us and we will be happy to help.


Learn more about in-text links on this page here