Your kitchen seems to be bigger than 10 x 16 but I can't see the dimension of the bottom wall in the photo. Anyway, the general rule of thumb is that you need 35 lumens of light/square foot. IF your kitchen is 10 x 16 you would need 5600 lumens. I'm not sure what size/kind of recessed lights you are planning on using so can't really give you an answer, but the amount of lumens will be listed on the package. Never the less, if you are planning on doing a lot of work at the island, I would prefer using a combination of recessed lights AND pendants over the island. Also, keep in mind that your recessed lights would likely not be centered over the aisles, but closer to the cabinets so not to cast shadows over the counters when you are standing at them, another reason to have pendants over the island.