What is location?

From the info provided, looks like you need 3 ton AC and possibly a 60 KBTU two stage furnace at 80% efficiency.

What size AC do you ave now? I would say you are oversized on existing furnace.

IMO

That's kind of what I was thinking.

Northern VA, 4 ton unit.

As a followup, what I didn't realize is that the total listed did not include the latent cooling requirement, which is printed on the page. So the total becomes just under 40k BTU. Which, since I am looking at a two stage, means a 4ton unit is correct.

Does that make sense?

Still checking on the furnace sizing and seeing if they have a reason to go 80/100 vs 64/80

This means you will have to go up in size of furnace to get a 4 ton rated furnace.

If you have an existing 100 KBTU furnace now at 80% efficiency, I would say you are oversized.

An 80 KBTU furnace two stage var speed at 80% efficiency makes sense. Don't get snookered though. You want a true two stage thermostat to operate it correctly.

IMO

Looking in the documentation there is an ahri number for the 80/64k btu furnace with coil for the 4ton unit.
CA*F4961*6D*+TXV
A*VC80805C*B*
47,000 35,200 16.0 12.5 1,390 5188307

So, and there are probably details i'm missing, this unit should work, correct?

Should work but I would want 13 EER to get Fed Tax Credit.

Not a fan of Amana/Goodman.

5188307 Active Systems ASXC16 SERIES AMANA HEATING AND AIR CONDITIONING ASXC160481B* CA*F4961*6D*+TXV A*VC80805C*B* 47000 12.50 16.00 1 RCUY-A-CB 355

Looks like you would need to use an Aspen third party evap coil to get the credit. I would want to know the warranty on the Amana HVAC and Aspen coil.

IMO