I have a townhouse style condo in central MA, built in '85. I currently have a marginal gas fired forced air furnace, no AC.

I'm looking to replace the furnace and add AC.

I asked around for good suppliers. Talked to one guy who seemed very knowledgeable. Looked around carefully, but failed to supply a quote, even after repeated jogging.

Another supplier is local to my town, been in business a long time, has done many of the condo units near me, and is spoken of highly. I haven't heard anything bad about them. They have been very responsive, came out last year, gave me quote with three options. But I thought I should get other quotes. I've had trouble finding other suppliers that give me good feelings. I've contacted a few I cut it off because they seemed flaky.

This year, from my one solid bidder I got three alternatives again - all one zone. As I talked to the rep about them, I asked especially whether I could expect good comfort in the upstairs. He pretty much told me that it wouldn't be as comfortable as downstairs. So I asked if I could zone the system in order to get it as good upstairs as down. He said zoning in these units is difficult. We talked about two stage systems, and he said he didn't recommend them here - that because of the ducting the system would be noisy. (I may not be repeating this correctly - I couldn't really follow his logic.)

Finally he said that there was a system that was continuously variable, that would do a good job for me in a multi-zone configuration. It is a heat pump based system. (As best I can tell it is incidental that it is a heat pump - that it is the continuous variability that would make the difference.)

This condo is about 1600 sq ft, two levels conditioned. Upstairs are three BRs. One has cathedral ceiling. One is "normal", and one is over the garage, has a big skylight that brings in a lot of heat, and has only one register. It is the "problem" room I think.

The four alternatives are:

1) $12,659, one zone
Trane SINGLE STAGE 95 TUH1B060A9361A (heat)
Trane XB-95 4TTB3036D1000A (cool)

2) $13,839, one zone
Trane XT-95 TUH1B080A9H31C (heat)
Trane XR-16 4TTR6036E1000A (cool)

3) $14,791, one zone
Trane XV-95 TUH2B060A9V3VA (heat)
Trane XR-16 4TTR6036E1000A (cool)

4) $23,551, two zones
Trane XC95m TUHMB080ACV3VA (heat)
TRANE XV20i 4TWV0036A1000A (heat/cool)

(I've just listed the major elements. I can provide the details if that is important.)

From snooping around I have a sense that all of these may be overpriced. But without competing bids that is just an impression. I can pay what I need to pay, but want to end up with a system that keeps me comfortable, and don't want to get ripped off.

My feeling is that system (4) would provide the best comfort but is outlandishly expensive for my home.

Other than that, I think I would probably go with (3). But I still wonder if this is overpriced.

I would appreciate thoughts on the above.

BTW, if it isn't obvious, I'm new to the hvac forum. I used to be active in the kitchen and appliance forums, but have been inactive for a few years.