Quote is for Trane equipment

40k btu furnace is the smallest furnace they make. no problem there. 95% furnace for your area is overkill but with a rebate of $600 hard to argue with. Size of the a/c is probably ok. assuming the load calc was done completely correct 1.5 ton unit would work but bad to find out on 100 degree week that someone did a half way job on your load calculation. being in a hot humid climate and being it is the upstairs unit (heat rises) run time should be long enough to dehumidify. I would bring up your concerns about humidity with your contractor because he can better look at your paticular situation.

A heating load of 16,000 BTU sounds low. What are the typical low temperatures in the winter?

Will the furnace be in conditioned space? If not, then my concern would be freezing condensate. I have read heat tape can be used to prevent freezing. Ask the contractor what he plans to do for the installation.

good price for sure. You might want to consider heatpump option since your winters are mild.

neohioheatpump- In regards to the heat pump, are you talking about heat pump with natural gas or all heat pump. If all heat pump, the issue is the cost of running wiring for the heat strips.

mike_home - Winters can get low 20's and below.

harlemhvacguy - 105+ days occur. Not unusual to have 95-105 days with high humidity. Heat index upper 115-125 range.

Would a variable speed fan with a different thermostat make sense?

Who performed the Manual J calculation? What winter and summer design temperatures were used?

Given the winter and summer temperatures you have reported, the heating and cooling loads seem low to me. Your equipment sizes are problably correct. You are not as oversized as you think your are.

A variable speed AC will help the high humdity you experience in the summer. You will want a good 2-stage thermostat for control.

Manual J was done by a local Trane dealer.
Heating temp 20 degrees and cooling 98 degrees

I have recieved an updated price for the variable speed blower.

THD2B060A9B3VA - Priced increased $1150 and Seer increased to 16.

Which Thermostat would I need. I just want to make sure I can control humidity.

I guess I thought the poster's climate was warmer. If they only get say 5-6 days of weather in the low 20's that might be worth getting by on just heatpump with electric strip backup. If they already have natural gas then maybe they should spend the extra money to have an 80% furnace. I really like the idea of the heatpump for their climate because there climate sounds like the winters are not too terrible and the heatpump could handle that well. Ofcourse natural gas furnace with a heatpump is always better. That is what I have. I really like the heatpump heat for the milder cold weather (35 and above).