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joyfulguy

Which investor gains due to inflation? Who loses?

joyfulguy
18 years ago

Remember the bank's highly-touted guarantee - that when you choose to put your money with them for a period, they'll give back *every dollar* that you gave them (plus the rent on the money, of course)?

There's another relevant guarantee, as well, that they never mention - in the ordinary course, apart from the rent on the money, they won't give you one dollar more, either. In recent years they've intoduced some inflation resistant features - but usually the potential cost to the consumer is substantial.

Suppose you'd given your bank $10,000. on a 5-year certificate, 15 years ago, and renewed the contract twice since.

They'd paid you the interest as agreed throughout those years.

If you choose to withdraw the money now, how much would you get?

Right - $10,000.

Remember how that $10,000. would have bought a decent car, 15 years ago? Not today.

The value of every one of those dollars shrank, in terms of what it would purchase, every one of those years.

Let's say that I was one of the eight or so borrowers to whom the bank would have lent that $10,000. 15 years ago, using it to buy an asset that continues to have value over a substantial term, such as a car (short term, and rapidly loses value) a table (retains anything like original value only if antique, usually), or a home (that has developed a good record of value increase), or a good quality stock, that have good records of increase in value.

Many people use borrowed money to buy a car, but buy stocks with cash. In Canada, unless you're in business for yourself, the interest on the auto loan isn't deductible, but if you borrow money to buy an asset that will likely produce income, the interest cost is deductible. Unless you borrow to invest in a currently tax-deductible Registered Retirement Savings Plan: such interest is not deductible.

So - borrow to buy your (non-RRSP) stock, but buy your vehicle for cash.

So - I pay a little higher interest rate than the bank pays you for the money that they borrowed from you (but they're still laughing, because they lent that money to about 7 other borrowers, as well).

Suppose I let that loan run, paying only the interest, for 15 years. How much do I have to pay back to the bank?

The same $10,000. that they use to pay you the money that they borrowed from you.

That'll buy a lot less now than when I borrowed it.

When you invest in dollar-denominated assets - you lose to inflation.

When I borrow a dollar-denominated asset - I gain, so long as the asset gains in value faster than the interest cost that I paid. But we're not talking about what the asset must gain in order to cover my interest, we're only talking about the effect of inflation on the asset itself.

I repay each dollar of the amount originally borrowed - with dollars each of which has shrunk in value every year that I was using it.

If anyone disagrees with my logic - speak up. I'll listen.

ole joyful

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