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rjexit5

PV installation ROI review

rjexit5
9 years ago

My wife and I are researching solar panel systems for our home. We have one quote in so far and want to run the numbers by a few folks. We are looking at 25 panels with 8 batteries for automatic use during grid power outages. Our grid tied system would feed extra power back to the grid at 100% of retail value of the incoming KWH from the utility company. Based on an annual 3%(our actual yearly increase over the last 7 years) utility rate increase for each KWH, we are looking at a 21-25 year break even on the investment(point at which we start making money) which includes one maintenance replacement of the invertor and battery bank. Is this duration reasonable? We are all about using this abundant resource but 20+ year break even point seems a bit extreme. Thoughts? What was your break even point?

Comments (13)

  • Brian_Knight
    9 years ago

    What state are you in? Are you including the Federal tax credit 30% or any state incentives?

  • rjexit5
    Original Author
    9 years ago

    Yes, that ROI includes the 30% tax credit. I'm in WV, we do not have any state incentives. Solar prices have come down but they are still quite high for what you get back. I realize there is a cost but I was expecting more like 7-10 years for return. I actually went through 7 years of electric bills and determined that the price per KWH has gone up an average if 3.3% annually. This actual increase is nowhere close to what the solar companies in my area advertise. They are saying 15-20% increases every 2-3 years, that's a long way from 3. I want to pull the trigger on this, just not sure if my eyes are clouded with the idea of being a little more green.

  • Brian_Knight
    9 years ago

    You are asking the right questions! Ive never heard of PV installers claiming that utility prices will go up that much. Even 3.3% seems big. So youve gotten quotes for labor too? How much are you looking at per watt and why do you mention battery bank if its grid tied?

  • rjexit5
    Original Author
    9 years ago

    Did the battery bank so we could have minimal power available during a grid outage. This battery power would power our well pump and a few other critical items. The total cost per watt is $3.40 without battery option and just about $4 even if we did the battery backup option. I see where other folks claim to get solar panels for $1 a watt installed and I just cannot see how. I have two bids in now and both are very similar in cost.

  • Brian_Knight
    9 years ago

    Those are decent prices per watt. While Ive heard of $2.50 per watt, I think 1$ per watt would have to involve DIY. I understand your trepidation. A lot of people in the position to invest, may not see much return.

    Iam sure youve looked into reducing your loads through design and building envelope upgrades or are you in an existing home already? A passive solar, airtight, well insulated home on mini-split heat pumps might only need half the panels and would be more resilient in those outages youre planning for.

    All I can say is that PV is one of the few investments you can make in a home that will eventually have financial returns. If only this were true for finishes! I can also say that the 9 years Ive lived in my home have flown by and wish I was half way to having the utility company pay me for renewable generation. Instead Iam still burning large amounts of coal supplied by the mountaintop removal mines of your state. Iam sorry and Iam working on reducing it!

  • Annie Deighnaugh
    9 years ago

    We decided not to use the battery backup as batteries lose capacity over time, they are expensive to buy and difficult to dispose of. Instead, for power outages, we went with an LP (no nat gas in our area) fired generator.

  • rjexit5
    Original Author
    9 years ago

    Was the LP generator installation, fuel, and maintenance cheaper than battery installation and replacement every 10 years or so? Not sure of the lifespan on the generator, what type of warranty did it have?

    I am realizing that we are struggling with this decision which probably means this is the wrong fit for us right now. We are also thinking about how much the prices have come down in the last 5 years; if that levels off in the next 3 years or so I would rather hold out and buy then. I would be sick if I dropped the money now just to be able to get the same system in 3 years for less than half. This is hard for sure.

  • mtvhike
    9 years ago

    I received a quote (installed) for a 5 KW system of $17500 before incentives, or $8225 after (no state incentive because this is not a primary home). FYI, this is in NY. I'm going to install it in the spring.

  • Brian_Knight
    9 years ago

    If you dont do it now, be sure to install conduit from roof to mechanical room/electric panel. Cheap and easy now..

  • kenstl
    9 years ago

    what is your electric rate? I assume it is fairly low for such a long return. I did a 8.7 kW system (34 panels), but our state had a $2 per kW rebate which accounted for almost 2/3 of the cost, plus the fed rebate on the balance. even with that, the pay back is still 4-5 years. our rates are only .10 kw.

  • rjexit5
    Original Author
    9 years ago

    My rate is 0.09kwh. Only incentive is federal credit, nothing at local or state level. 30% of my cost comes from the battery side of the system. Power when grid goes down is something we are looking for. We lived for 10 days without power in mid summer, we never want to do that again. It was costly, from frozen food lose, and just overall bad in an all electric home. We investigated propane generator but those maintenance costs can get really bad.

  • delriogarden
    9 years ago

    About 10 months ago, I got a quote for a 10kw system for $22,100 after incentives (30% federal and $1,000 state). The solar installer estimated it would save me $1,852 with subsidy ($0.04 over retail).

    I did not want to analyze it with the subsidy since utilities are trying to get away from that. So on a straight retail rate basis that should be about $1,323 in annual savings. Out of pocket payback period is 17 years

    To factor in financing, I used a 4.25% interest rate, 1.7% inflation rate, and 25% mortgage interest deduction. The payback under that scenario is 22 years.

    This is our "kids drag us out" house and we're 40 now, but that payback period is marginal for me too. Any gadget has to have a payback period less than its warranty in my opinion. These panels have a 10 year parts and all and a 25 year energy guarantee. Expected life is 30+ years.

    I'm going to wait a year to see if prices come down anymore. I'll probably do it for no other reason than I'd feel better a mountain isn't getting flattened to power my home.

  • rjexit5
    Original Author
    9 years ago

    Thank you delriogarden for sharing your info. I am nearly in the exact same situation with just about the same numbers. I actually want to do it for nearly the same reasons as well.

    My wife and I decided to hold off for a year or so and see what happens to the price. The fed tax credit expires at the end of 2015 unless it is extended with a congressional vote. All of the popup companies will disappear once this happens unless their prices can fall a bit. We are actually making the would-be financing payment to ourselves now in hopes that we will not need to finance any part of the system in a few years.

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