Winter forecasting....

11 years ago

Just the other day I heard some visitors in our lobby discussing the forecast for our winter season coming up. They mentioned that the nature forecasters are predicting a very cold, snowy winter for 2012-2013 unlike our very mild winter last year. Certain natural indicators are known by folks who study these things. One indicator was the heavy fruit of persimmon trees. So, of course, today I passed by a persimmon tree loaded heavily with lots of fruit. The branches were so loaded the owners had propped them up with large tree limbs to bear the weight.

Have you heard of winter predictions in your area? And have you seen indications of a hard winter where you live?

Teresa

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Comments (7)

dedtired
11 years ago
I think a storm before Halloween means a warm winter! It sure worked last year. As for fruit on trees, last year my Kousa Dogwood was loaded with berries and we had a mild winter. Last spring there were very few blooms (bracts) and this fall there were no berries. So if lots of berries = mild winter, maybe no berries = hard winter.

I know the wooly bear caterpillars are supposed to be predictors -- the width if the band on them?? -- but I never see any.

I think I will cry if we have a lot of snow this winter. I remember another winter when I looked out the window and saw yet more snowflakes and burst into tears!
centralcacyclist
11 years ago
Pam, I think you need to move to Southern California.
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Oh, no. My whole yard was wiped clean with last year's 4 day 28 degree weather!! I can't stand the thought of it all dying again. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaah. Thankfully, I did plant some cold hardy shrubs and perennials to provide some structure for when everything else is gone. At least *I* won't be hot!!!! (Never did put on a coat last year. Don't own one. Or a long sleeved shirt, even. The YARD might have been frozen, but I felt fine! If only my plants were as cold-hardy as I am!) Marcia
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I think that the Farmer's Almanac is predicting a colder than normal winter, with good winter precipitation for our region. The NOAA probably won't release theirs until Mid-October. I for one am hoping for a nice cold winter with lots of snow (but not ice). It's about time winter lived up to its billing.
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Maryanne - Sunset is a publisher that has focussed on home and garden magazines and books - but originally for the western states. They came up with a climate zone schema that they felt better reflected the microclimates and topology west of the Mississippi. Sunset basically ignored the USDA Zones and encouraged those in the west to do the same, as the USDA's Zones are based on the avg. lowest minimum temperatures, which they felt somehow accurately reflected the eastern climate. Of course that's silly because the USDA's Zone maps didn't take into account the different topology and microclimates east of the Mississippi either.... ;-) However topology and elevation are now being factored into the new USDA zone map (which is part of why it is taking so long to release). Note the soon to be released USDA map will not be the same as the new National Arbor Day Zone map. In any case, by 2002, Sunset recently expanded their Zone designations to cover the entire U.S. "Sunset Zone 32" covers a good chunk of the northern Mid-Atlantic coastal plain climate. You can find this area's Sunset Zones from here. The full clickable map is here. Sunset published a "Northeastern Garden Book" that covers the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic (including PA) and it's a great garden book that very accurately describes this area and includes an encyclopedia of many of the popular plants grown here. I got mine at Home Depot!
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IM kind of a pretty big weather buff myself, and I used to get the farmers Almanac every year when I was a kid as well. I still read it for its interesting articles and such, but really, I think that NOAA is more accurate as its more science based rather than on oak trees "MASTING", and other natural phenomena. For those who don't know, "MASTING" is when Oak trees overproduce acorns to an extreme amount. It happens from time to time some reigons, and from what I understand is more of a survival insurance than anything else. It happend here several years ago, and it was truly incredible just how much acorns were produced. Never seen anything like it. I think it only occurs once in like every 50 or 100 years or something. Anyway...Im still hoping for ( and thinking that it will be) a very mild winter here in the Mid Atlantic. We have the same saying here... " if you don't like the weather in D.C., wait 5 minutes". While its not that volatile all the time, we do get fairly changing weather for large portions of the year, especially spring and fall, we were can see 40 degree differences in temps in sometimes as little as 12 hours. The D.C. Metro just does not have the same winters it had regularly up until about 1995 or so. The last true "blizzard" we had here was in 1996. The rivers and bay almost NEVER freeze over anymore in the last 10-12 years here, and seeing teens and low 20's in the city is fairly uncommon anymore. Were also very hurricane prone here as well, although most are usually strong to medium tropical storms by the time they get here. Although, a few have come through at a category 1 hurricane, like Isabel in 2003. IIRC, it was finally downgraded to a Tropical Storm once it moved just north of the D.C. Metro. Its center passed about 50 miles due west of downtown D.C., putting most of the metro area, and most of VA/MD in the worst / strongest quadrant of the storm. What a trying 24 hours that was. I rode it out in my east facing 14th floor apt at the time, and we had sustained winds up there of 82 MPH for several hours at the hight of it, with a gust to 106. That was the gust that blew the anomometer off of the balcony railing. I can tell you the vines that I could not get down, and the 10' river birch in a large half whisky barrel were all defoliated by the winds, and quite a few of the windows were blown out on the east and south facing windows of the high rises we lived in. Im glad we heavily tapped our large plate glass windows up, because those were the ones that were breaking into peoples apts. Anyway, lots of varied weather here. It keeps things very interesting. I just wish we were 1 zone warmer! Who knows, in the close in dowtown areas of NoVA and DC we have moved into a zone 8 in the last 10-14 years, maybe a zone 9 is coming? Im not for "global warming" but man it would be nice to have even milder winters than we do now.
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annie1992
11 years ago
I like the snow, it just means more precipitation to me. Lake Michigan is about 28 inches below average water level now, we need more moisture.

Other than that, I must be the only person on earth that really doesn't pay attention to long term weather forecasting. The weather will do what it will and I can't control that. Elery says that meteorologists can predict the weather three days out, more than that and it's just guessing. Since his job was directing power plants to make power and then deciding how much would be bought or sold, the weather had a big impact on his decisions.

I go where I have to, stay home if I don't have to go. I worry about my girls if I know they are out in a storm, but Ashley only works 4 blocks from her home. Amanda does have a 6 mile drive but she's pretty good with the Tahoe.

Last year the forecasters here said we were going to get slammed with snow. We didn't, it was one of the mildest winters in my memory. A few years before that it was supposed to be an extremely mild winter and we got something like 160 inches of snow.

It's the only job where you can be wrong half the time and still be considered really good at it!

Annie
Lars
11 years ago
We either get a dry winter or a wet winter, depending on whether it is "La Nina" (dry) or "El Nino" (wet). Because our weather comes mostly from the Pacific Ocean, it is fairly stable and predictable, and we more or less know when to expect a dry or wet winter. Even when the predictions are off, there is not enough variation in our weather to make it all that noticeable. I think we are between cycles right now, and so we are expected to have an average winter this season. We had a very warm September and October this year, however, but I think it was not as warm as three years ago. I've pretty much adjusted to the climate difference between Venice and Westchester now - the main difference being that it is about 5 degrees warmer here in summer/fall than it is in Venice. The winters are pretty much the same, however.

Lars
Gina_W
11 years ago
According to Farmers Almanac we will have another mild winter Lars. Very fine with me, but not good for ski areas. I hope to wear sandals through our Indian summer and beyond.
Bumblebeez SC Zone 7
11 years ago
I suppose I could go buy another pair of snow boots, that would guarantee a winter without snow again!
I'm near you Teresa and have about the same weather. I have heard that's it's supposed to be harsher than last year, but then that was a nothing winter.
I would like some winter weather.
centralcacyclist
11 years ago
I bought new flip flops yesterday. :) I also wear them with socks. Yep, I'm very stylish around the house.

Eileen

Winter forecasting....

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dedtired

centralcacyclist

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