Hi Sally!

You're right - nobody agrees. That's because each has their own interpretation of the raw data. Some have their own preferences for one string of data versus another. Then again, sometimes the data itself is obscure. You will see more varied forecasts with day-to-day weather than with major weather events when most everybody backs off and goes with NOAA.

We work for NOAA as spotters so they are our foremost source for data. But, we have been reading weather for decades as long distance off-shore boaters and are not afraid to make an on-the-fly decision on our own if we feel it is warranted. The data we provide shows up on weather.com and TWC's on-air programing..

Weather, unfortunately, is not a perfect science. New satellites, larger computers, better models, etc. have made weather prediction leaps and bounds better than, say, 20 years ago but there's still so much to learn.

All weather is local. In my area, our official forecasts are rarely accurate to what's happening outside. That's because Mystic sits under a "stable air mass" that affects our weather significantly. Five miles away, in Groton, the weather is different. NOAA's offices cover a small region but within that region are micro climates that will not match the overall region's forecast, such as Mystic.

Use NOAA's forecast for the big picture. Then, check your local newscaster for discrepancy. Finally, apply your micro knowledge of the area in question. And always allow for change.

Right now, we are under a Special Weather Statement for fog. Outside, the sun is shining brightly but I've no doubt up the coast a couple miles they are fogged in. CT has received several inches of rain this week with frequent flash flood warnings. Mystic has not had a drop. This is why NOAA's spotter program exists. To take advantage of people's knowledge of what's actually happening on the ground. Doplar radar can often spot a tornado. But there's no substitute for a spotter on the ground. All of our data is reported directly to NOAA and they distribute it around to TWC, local news stations, etc. Many, many times I've reported something to NOAA and 5 seconds later my TV starts to beep and a red warning screen appears based on what I've reported. And, finally, there's no better way to check the weather than opening your blinds and taking a look outside! lol Many old folk tales are surprisingly accurate such as, "Red sky at night, sailor's delight. Red sky in the morning, sailor take warning!"

/tricia

This post was edited by triciae on Sat, Jul 27, 13 at 8:52

Thanks, Tricia. I suspected the other weather agencies used NOAA a lot. Your information confirms pretty much what I thought, although I get frustrated figuring out what to pack when we head up to Tahlequah. One service predicts a low of 57 tonight, the other a low of 63. One forcasts a 70% chance of rain on Monday, the other a 50% chance. So, I expect it to be chilly in the morning and rainy on Monday. If I don't end up needing that extra layer tomorrow morning, at least I'm prepared if I do.

It's actually quite a blessing to still be having to pack for both cold and hot weather. Usually this time of year, we only pack for hot, hot, and hotter still.

Sally