Who knows?! Building materials prices are local and affected by natural disasters as well as global markets. Will there be an earthquake in your area or flood? Hurricane? Will China/US relations fall apart and drive cement prices up? down?

You are asking for the crystal ball answer. No one has it.

I agree with Kirkhall. Likely things always get more expensive :) also, if the market continues to pick up that will impact it too.

Lumber is traded on the futures market as a commodity, complete crap shoot on how prices are going to be. But I personally think as the economy gets a little stronger you will probably see prices go up as the demand increases.

This post was edited by millworkman on Wed, Mar 20, 13 at 8:14

Are you getting a mortgage? Interest rates may also go up, increasing your costs to borrow. The fed won't keep them artificially low forever. Something to consider.

There will be a loan and I have been disappointed to see rates rise over the past few weeks. This is yet another factor to weigh in the analysis. I agree that rates will not be kept low forever. I further agree that costs will continue to rise at some rate. I have to balance these issues with the sense of financial security of having enough contingency put back.

I I wouldn't wait. Lumber and mortgage rates are on the rise. Glad I got in last year.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/03/lumber-prices-hit-an-8-year-high-last-week-as-the-us-housing-and-consruction-sectors-rebound/

http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=691b3718-a10f-453c-bfd6-41702b2ba853

Thanks building_a_house. That is exactly what I wanted to see, but not what I wanted to hear. I am sure it is hard to time the market, but one has to wonder if the framing costs will dip from their high any time soon.

The next question is whether or not ICF becomes more attractive due to higher lumber cost.

Other than not finding anything close to what we want near where we want to live, buying a house sure looks more attractive.

I had to chuckle while reading this thread as we are in the EXACT same boat. I am generally quite cautious/conservative with our finances, and although financially we could have built last year I wanted to continue to build our savings (beyond what we intend to use for the down payment). I have miserably watched concrete prices in our area rise 8% in January, lumber hit new highs, and of course interest rates are doing their annual summer rise and although that wasn't unexpected it's still annoying to watch it happen, especially after November's historic lows.

Still though, what we're able to save each month eclipses the higher prices we will end up paying when we start building later this year or next, so I'm trying to take solace in the fact that although we'll pay a little more then, we'll still have more money left in the bank when we're done.

And even though we are planning to build soon, I am still scouring the current market for existing homes and land that fit our criteria. If we could both lower our expectations somewhat, we could just buy and end up with more house for our money. But so far I just can't find a house that ticks off all the boxes. But I'll likely still be looking for it right up until the day before we break ground. And then I'll STOP looking because with my luck the perfect house will hit the market the day after we start our build, and they'll be asking $100k less!

I don't know (and neither does anyone else here), but materials and labor don't seem to get cheaper over time, do they?

Fortunately, the stock market has done well in the past six months, so if you have been invested you have significantly more than you did previously. Since markets tend to correct, that's another reason to use the earnings now while they still exist.

As for existing homes, the perfect one is never out there, unless one is willing to redesign and remodel.

Good luck on your project!

I am so confident that materials won't get less expensive that we have paid for some materials way in advance of needing them and the vendors are holding them for us...the discount we receive for prepay is better than the interest earned anyway.

Shows current, future and past
framing lumber prices.
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=527

dBrad,

I could not have said it better myself!

We've also been asking ourselves the same question and have decided to build now, rather than wait, because we really don't see either lumber or interest rates getting any better in the next year.

Everything in my area is outrageous due to the oil boom. Based on my location and current markets, I would build sooner, rather than later. Good luck with your decision!

I would build now, instead of waiting for interest rates to rise and material to rise.

There is always the counter argument that lumber is really too high right now. I mean 8 year high brings it back to 2005 - when the building going on may not be repeated in our generation - whatever that means - 30 years. The blip up in home construction we are seeing may not be sustained and prices could plummet.

Ben is going to keep low rates forever in my estimation - 6.5% unemployment.... Sure the market fluctuates around that but he clearly has his bias as far as rates.

Think what eliminating the mortgage tax deduction would do to lumber prices.

But crystal balls are always very murky....

We waited last year due to higher costs and seasonal weather. I will be checking again next month. It's looking like we will have to compromise some sqfootage. Dbrad- we will grab a paddle too as many of us are in this boat together. I scour the market in my spare time and even have been to a few showings but I have realized nothing will check all our boxes either. I am beginning to think it's like comparing apples to oranges since it's so hard to compete with this idea of the "fictitious" home that is conceived in our heads;). I'm sure reality, for us will consist of a work of compromise and more DIY landscaping and yard work left than we hoped to tackle.
To the OP even though we are in SC our local contractor said OSB went double after hurricane Sandy so we waited in hopes...on a side note it's nice to worry about luxuries like space and level of finish in contrast to the cost of storm devastation.

The problem is always supply and demand. The issues with that is with the economy having been n the tank a lot of downsizing has occurred. Mills have been closed and entire companies have closed. Consequently when demand picks up they cannot keep up and the mills are able to get more money. Then with fuel prices being as asinine as they are it cost more to run the mills and ship the materials. It is unfortunately a viscous circle. While prices are at a high they are predicted to not move down much mainly due to the fact that the remaining mills will not be able to keep up with the demand domestically and exports. So the pricing may come off slightly here and there but the feeling from what I am hearing is the pricing will not come down substantially in the near future.

Well this doesn't make me feel any better - we won't be building until 2015!!

Impossible to know! For us, the plywood for flooring was outrageous because a hurricane had just rolled through the northeast, so we used advantech which is generally more expensive, but not a few weeks after a storm. Things like that can change the prices on a week to week basis, so it you cannot figure it out ahead of time. That being said, we always will know current prices better than future prices, so if you are ready, go for it now!

As a construction professional, I can tell you that building materials only go down for short periods right after a major decline in construction- to ease inventory. Very rarely are both residential and commercial construction both in decline, so it is a pretty steady upward rise right around 8% a year, higher than most of our incomes are rising.
My next question, why are you waiting with baited breath? did you eat some worms or minnows?

I wonder how prices have fared in the year since this thread started? At one time, I was going to buy all of the wiring for the house some 2 years before we broke ground. As it turns out, copper is down a bit, and wire is cheaper now than it was then. Go figure.