Contractors differ on roof leak
So I have an intermittent roof leak, and three contractors came by to look at the situation. I am in Upstate New York and we've gotten a ton of rain recently. They were unable to gain access to the attic crawl space. All made their opinions based on looking at the roof and location of leaking in upstairs room.
Contractor No. 1: Nothing looks bad on the roof, Leak obviously is in the flashing around your chimney, based on the location of leak on top floor.
Contractor No. 2: Ditto. Also says that flashing around chimney looks bad and at one time says "no flashing", though a guy who he brought with him says that there is flashing. He sends the guy onto the roof with a hose, and they pour water onto the flashing around the chimney for about five minutes. No leak in upstairs room, but this guy says that doesn't prove anything because he might have to do that for "two hours" to get any water in upstairs room.
Contractor No. 3: Sees no problem with flashing. Sees gap in roof shingles on other side of roof, and says that is probable source of water, as very possible water traveled from that point. Says appears to be a "fluke" because of record rains, is not causing damage or mold because of attic fan, I should just watch it and call him if it gets worse. May not recur (though it does the other day, when we get massive rains that cause flooding nearby). Says roof in good shape. Points out to me that what he has told me is not in his financial interest (which is true).
So who do I believe? Contractor No. 1 is reputable contractor. Contractor No. 2 was recommended to me by a guy I know, but I'm suspicious as he had no business card to give me. Contractor No. 3 is a respected building contractor well known in area.
I hate the idea of a recurrent leak in the roof, but I'm not exactly flush with cash and my temptation is to choose door No. 3.