Will the Dow hit 12,000 this week?

Chemocurl zn5b/6a IndianaOctober 16, 2006

I think it will.

What mark do you think it will hit next after that?

11,000

or 13,000.

I'm guessing 13,000.

Sue...a 'forever' optimist

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jannie

It was over 11,900 last week, so another hundred points variance is likely. I say Yes.

    Bookmark   October 16, 2006 at 10:03AM
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joyfulguy

Maybe.

11,000. Even though an election year is upon us, which usually means smiling faces on the markets.

But - I don't care too much, as I only own 1 U.S. stock - Berksire Hathaway B.

However - I own some mutual funds (about 15% of my portfolio) that own quite a few U.S. equities. I've been considering getting rid of some of them, as their growth record isn't up to much ... but not this year, as I was forcibly sold out of some of my long-term positions earlier this year, so will have some capital gains to declare for this year, so they'll have to wait till next.

A number of our mutual funds take about a quarter to a fifth of the average growth in fees, which doesn't seem like a good deal to me - especially when they get theirs, even if they can't produce much growth at all, or even lose value.

Does that sound a bit like, "Heads I win (and you win some) ... tails you lose - but I still win"?

S/he who has $20,000. or more (rough estimate) to invest, and has any interest in money and the markets, and some time for research (not much needed, if one looks the right places) should manage his/her own money, it seems to me. Pay yourself what the mutual fund manager was getting, previously: take yourself out to dinner, and several times, at that.

Take me along, if you like.

Hope you're starting on a great week, everyone.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   October 16, 2006 at 4:52PM
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qdognj

12000, soon, but then 11000 long before 13000...Inflation is a legit threat,so protect yourself with some gold shares and mining companies...And if you think gas can get much cheaper, i got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn...My next prognostication is gas at 2.75 US dollars per gallon, before 2.00 per gallon, and with gas already at 2.13 here in PA, the odds are not in my favor...

    Bookmark   October 16, 2006 at 9:30PM
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jannie

In the 1980's, on the advice of TV guy Louis Ruykeyser, my DH put $10,000 in the stock market in a well-known fund. Then in 1987 there was a crash. Our ten K nest egg was worth about five thousand. We left the money in the fund, and it slowly climbed back up. By 2000 it was worth about $11,000. And there it sits. We don't buy and sell stocks, we just have am amount sitting in that account. And it gets us free checking at our bank. Will the Dow hit 12,000? Well, yesterday it was at 11,997, so it seems like it will any day now. Will it change my life? I don't think so.

    Bookmark   October 17, 2006 at 8:36AM
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dave100

It's likely to close above 12K this week. The trend it takes from there stands to be positive for the coming quarter, but an 8% retrenchment seems a LOT more likely than an 8% climb after that. I remember when the DOW closed above 1000 (I was a kid ....) and my Mom (bless her soul) explained to me the only reason to get excited about that milestone was that it created optimism among consumers and they in turn would drive the market positively. She put it in a nutshell for me -- always keep an eye on consumer spending and the general mood around us -- optimism breeds prosperity and vice-versa.

(She also cautioned that moods turn dark rather quickly and it can be a lot harder to get cheerful after that.)

That said, I do own a few of the Dow pieces -- not because they are in the index -- but because they are producing well for me. Some of the better performers are likely to come out of the blue -- NASDAQ, -- not blue chips ... :-) and that won't be reflected in the DOW -- at least not right away.

    Bookmark   October 17, 2006 at 11:37AM
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joyfulguy

Well ... it made it. And during this week - half way through, in fact.

But not through day's end.

But it's over, again, on Thurs. (about noon).

ole joyful

    Bookmark   October 19, 2006 at 12:13PM
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dave100

Done deal ......

Strangely enough, NONE of MY dow components went up today :-(

    Bookmark   October 19, 2006 at 4:44PM
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TACHE

Definitely fill your gas tank before the election buy your stock after. Advice from someone who knows nothing about finance.

    Bookmark   November 5, 2006 at 8:07PM
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joyfulguy

The Canadian Toronto Stock Exchange hit 13,000 some time ago, and pretty well stayed around there.

The D-J Industrials made it - but didn't stay.

What's next - 14,000?

11,000?

o j

    Bookmark   March 6, 2007 at 3:20PM
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steve_o

I vote (and not happily) for 11,000. I don't think the U.S. equities markets are on very firm ground, either.

The news the other day had a story about people who refinanced their houses, cashing out, and who now are looking at mortgage default or bankruptcy as their ARM payments rise and they find themselves unable to pay the higher amount and yet unable to sell because they're "upside down" on their mortgage(s). I have a hard time with the "poor me" act ("The payment has gone up so high!"); I just want to shake these people and yell "Didn't you read anything before you signed it?! Didn't you do the math to figure out what could happen!?" Aside from the very expensive lesson these folks are learning, though, people who are fighting to pay their mortgages are not spending money on home improvements or new cars or HDTVs or vacations. For an economy propped up by consumer demand, that's bad news.

So are the legions being laid off from megacompanies and megamergers (and from their smaller suppliers) in the name of "efficiency of scale" or "rightsizing", many of whom will not find jobs paying even close in wages and benefits to what they were making. What are those folks supposed to be buying with these new lower wages?

Then there's our bungled "war on terrorism". Given the competency of those perpetrating this "war", it's hard to believe American soil will continue to be unsullied by an attack. Or two. If/when that happens and the veils fall from the eyes of those few who still believe things are going well in that arena, I believe you will see a financial reaction that will make the current situation look good.

Yup. Time to rebalance the portfolio....

    Bookmark   March 7, 2007 at 9:35AM
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joyfulguy

Like the oriinal poster said,

"Will the Dow hit 12,000 ... this week?"

Well ... maybe not this week.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   August 15, 2007 at 8:01PM
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Chemocurl zn5b/6a Indiana

Hasn't it been tumultuously recently?

I'm thinking 'buy, buy, buy!.

Sue (op)

    Bookmark   August 16, 2007 at 12:12PM
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joyfulguy

chemocurl,

Patience, girl ...

... patience!

Keep your money safe in your jeans for a while yet, I think.

Or, if you must invest ...

... only a small amount at a time.

That way, if there are further heavier drops later ...

... you need only sob a bit, not feel it necessary for a full-blown cry!

Have a great weekend, upcoming.

Better yet .. retire early: then you can enjoy weekend every day.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   August 16, 2007 at 8:21PM
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joyfulguy

How do you like 14,000 a few days ago?

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite got there a short time earlier.

Most of my money available to invest is still in my jeans - I'm looking for greater bargains, later.

But I should invest some as I go along, in case it doesn't act as I expected: I'd have missed some bargains that didn't look like it at the time.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   October 2, 2007 at 9:34PM
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joyfulguy

I think that the possibility is rather remote - and I hope not.

I'm crying the blues because a few months ago Cdn$1.00 could be bought for US$0.85 - 90. Now US$1.00 owners must pay about US$1.04 to buy that Dollar.

Which means that, if the prices of my U.S.-based stocks stayed the same, I'd be down well over 10% in Canadian equivalent, were I to sell them now.

But many think that the CDN$1.00 will fall relative to the value of US$1.00, before long.

I bought some shares in a silver mine a few weeks ago - $1.16 per.

Price was $0.96, earlier today.

Maybe it'll do well, later.

We'll see. I play those games with only a small portion of the total asset.

I keep some of my old "mistakes" - shares of companies that died - up on the wall, just to remind me.

Such things are tuition in the game of learning how to manage money effectively - without losing your shirt, that is.

Which is even less attractive in winter ... and snow is mixed with the rain that's been coming down sporadically, today.

I didn't put my 25 trays and boxes of green tomatoes out before I left home this morning.

I may be dumb ... but I'm not stupid.

I hope.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   November 15, 2007 at 7:19PM
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joyfulguy

"Do you think that the Dow ...

... will/may hit 12,000 ...

... this week??".

Jes' askin'.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   January 24, 2008 at 2:09PM
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joyfulguy

Hasn't been there for quite a while, folks.

When ya figger it may make it, again??

o j

    Bookmark   April 22, 2009 at 2:49AM
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jkom51

I think we have to get used to higher volatility because of the heavy use of options and double-leveraged ETFs. I heard an analyst on CNBC saying that long-term, the P/E ratios point towards a recovery back into the 12,000 range within a couple of years. That would be nice, and we can only hope, LOL.

Basically, the markets run on emotional reaction. They overshoot both in good times and bad. The only real, unanswerable question is, will the Fed be able to shut down the money spigot gradually, without causing excessive inflation or alternatively, collapse/deflation?

It's a tricky balancing act, so no wonder that Geithner is having a rough time finding sufficient staff. The Treasury, Fannie and Freddie are woefully understaffed and this is cause for serious concern.

I look on the bright side. I think it's great that the market is low while my DH is still working. His 401k contributions are buying 40% more shares than two years ago. Since we don't need the money for the foreseeable future, we can afford to take the long-term view. He's retiring next year, but we're going to try to live on just his pension, no 401k withdrawals. He has retirement healthcare benefits so we are much more fortunate than most.

    Bookmark   April 22, 2009 at 12:09PM
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joyfulguy

Hi jkom51 (who doesn't look a day over 39),

If you pre-retirees may be interested, I made a post over on "Retirement" (and I think added to someone else's thread on "Household Finance" along the same line) with regard to some possible alternatives to a retiree who's considering liquidating assets to live on in a down market.

As recovery often is rather strong, going up 20% or so in a year and continuing at a similar rate for another year or two (though I think it may be delayed and recover more slowly than usual in the current situation) if one can borrow to eat using stock/mutual fund certificates as collateral, at 5 - 6% or so, if one can delay liquidation for a couple of years, one may be laughing, even if the interest may not be deductible, as it usually is when borrowing to invest.

But ... if one had investment loans, it'd be a good idea to keep consumption loans separate, as there may be a difference regarding deductibility of interest ... and one doesn't want to set one's self up for arguments with the tax folks.

Does one?

Good wishes for a great week ahead ... I'm to be doing my income tax (Apr. 30 deadline).

ole joyful

    Bookmark   April 26, 2009 at 3:12PM
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