Beware the Stocks Headfake

dave_donhoffNovember 16, 2009

Beware the Stocks Headfake

[NOTE: GREEN means interest rates dropping, RED means rates rising.]

The "Safety Repositories" (Mortgage Securities) are rallying strongly;
2009-11-16 FNMA 4_5 Quarterly Ratewatch

Testing (3rd time) their alltime high resistance levels;
2009-11-16 FNMA 4_5 Annual Ratewatch

Just secured this... amazing pricing... could yet get better;
Jumbo 30 FRM Locked at 4.5% (1.375 Discount) on 30 days

Despite the fed/treasury distortion on the morgybacks, I deem that trading crowd "more honest" than the S&P/Dow et al. I suspect the security rally is now a blow-off fade...

Finance is fun!

Dave Donhoff

Leverage Planner

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It's a pattern that's become common in the last few years. Fund mgrs pile in - although in this year it's been more like a gradual slide, LOL - because this is their last chance to pump up ROI to ensure not only their bonuses, but continued employment [grin].

Virtually every day has seen light volumes. This exacerbates the market swings.

The fund mgrs who don't believe this market has real 'legs' will start pulling out after Thanksgiving. Still very few signs of increasing revenues, although massive cost-cutting has enabled most companies to beat year-over-year earnings estimates. But as we all know, those estimates were deliberately set very low to start with.

    Bookmark   November 17, 2009 at 1:07PM
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