Guess this should not be a surprise...

triciaeNovember 24, 2008

but here's October's data anyway.


Here is a link that might be useful: October Real Estate Sales Data

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Not surprising. Though here is some news that might be.

I wonder if this article explains why you may be able to get your 'dream house' on the hill (foreclosure you've had your eye on) at a steal of $150k, instead of $700k+ you mentioned it was worth earlier?

The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 11-03-08

" The end of the decline in home prices will come only when there are no new economic forces driving them down.

When will that be? I'd love to say it's just around the corner. But everything I see tells me that, despite the sharp declines already recorded, a steeper plunge in home values is dead ahead.

The reason: So far, most of the troubles in the housing market have been caused by bad mortgages going sour. Meanwhile,

* the more common causes of housing slumps " high interest rates, rising unemployment, and recession" are just starting to kick in. And

* the most powerful causes " depression and deflation" are still on the horizon.

In the boom leading up to the Great Depression of the 1930s, most Americans did not borrow money to buy a home. Variable rate mortgages didn't exist. And Wall Street investors rarely got involved in the business of financing homes. Home prices did fall dramatically. But those price declines came mostly after the stock market crashed, after the economy shrunk and after millions of workers had lost their jobs.

The crux of the problem today: That phase of the housing crisis still lies ahead. Moreover, this time, because of massive debts, the pressure to abandon or sell homes is far greater.

Conclusion: If the U.S. sinks into a depression, home price declines could be as deep as, or deeper than, those of the Great Depression, especially in the hardest hit regions of the country.

It is a frightening thought. Yet, on the positive side, a sharply reduced price for the average home is the only fundamental, enduring mechanism for making homes more affordable and restoring demand- especially if the days of easy credit are gone.

Already, in 2008, one in ten American homeowners has defaulted on their mortgage or lost their home in foreclosure. Nearly four in ten owe more than their home is worth."
The speculative bubble in U.S. homes is as extreme as each of these historic examples; and in the most hard-hit regions, the resulting price collapse could be equally extreme. Indeed, the Great American Housing Nightmare is progressing in three phases:

Phase 1. The bust in the subprime mortgage market. This is now history.

Phase 2. A severe U.S. recession. As of this writing, this phase is just beginning.

Phase 3. Depression and deflation. Still ahead.

Therefore, no matter how far home prices in your area have already fallen and no matter how cheap they may appear, they could still fall a lot further.

In the hardest hit regions, an individual home that was once priced for $400,000 at its peak could fall to as low as $200,000 by the end of Phase 1. But don't blindly assume that's the bottom. In Phase 2, it could fall in half again, to $100,000. And in Phase 3, it could fall by at least half for a third time, to as low as $50,000 or $40,000.

Homes with peak prices of $1 million could sell for as little as $100,000; some, originally priced for $10 million may have no buyers at all-even with asking prices as low as $1 million....."

A link that might be useful:

    Bookmark   November 24, 2008 at 7:34PM
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dreamgarden,purveyor of doom!!!! I'll save you the trouble of waiting for your home to bottom out..I'll give you 15 cents on the dollar TODAY!!!! 100k for a million dollar home, tell me, if this were to happen(which it won't),what do you think your dollars will be worth? i'll save you the trouble,again, your dollars will be worth only the paper they are printed on...So saving them in a CD or FDIC insured account will be useless...Perhaps it's time i start scouting out CAVES!!!!

    Bookmark   November 24, 2008 at 7:54PM
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qdog-"Perhaps it's time i start scouting out CAVES!!!!"

Perhaps! ;)

    Bookmark   November 24, 2008 at 8:08PM
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logic least ONE person predicted this debacle...and was patently ignored.

I tend to go with dreamgarden on this the number of lay offs will force the housing market into even more of a those without jobs can't buy..and those with jobs...such as a relative who is a trader for Merrill now BofA is afraid to buy because he is not sure if he will have a job or if he would even be able to find another...and is therefore even downsizing on his rental to one that costs less in order to conserve the funds that he has..

Here is a link that might be useful: Peter Schiff Was Right 2006-2007

    Bookmark   November 25, 2008 at 12:16AM
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Logic, The problem with Schiff is that when you say something for YEARS eventually it'll come true...Here is some quotes from May of this year;

1)"I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me. I've been recommending that to my clients for close to 10 years. You've got to own resources and energy. I was saying oil was going to $200 a barrel in 2002. I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world."

Foreign markets have gotten clobbered, Gold fell from over 1000 to around 800+-,oil and energy have fallen worse then the US markets

2)"If you want to be in U.S markets, you avoid anything connected with the American economy. You avoid retailers, the home builders, the financialsanything having to do with consumers buying something or paying back the money they borrowed. If you want to invest in U.S. markets, stick with exporters and resource companies. I've been saying that for five or six years; I haven't gotten anything wrong. We shorted subprime mortgages. I have clients that made 10 times their money. We've never sold an oil stock. We've never sold a gold stock."

Never sold a gold stock or oil stock? Your profits have long disappeared,though shorting subprime was an excellent move.

3)"Why don't you think soaring oil, grains, or commodities prices are the next bubble?
These prices do not constitute bubbles. They simply constitute the repricing of goods to reflect the diminished value of our money. The way you can tell there's not a bubble is that these markets are clearing. People are buying food and eating it. They're buying gasoline and using it. Speculators aren't buying gasoline and warehousing it in big facilities because they think the price is going to go up. At the same time, we've increased the supply of money dramatically, and the Fed is increasing it even faster now to deal with the bursting of the housing bubble. The only thing that can happen is for prices of commodities to rise to reflect the equilibrium of a greater supply of money. It's not even that oil prices are going up. Oil prices are staying the same. What's happening is the value of money is diminishing, so we need more units of currency to buy the same amount of oil or wheat or corn or whatever."

Oil wasn't a bubble? hmmm,maybe he'd like that quote back..

4)"So how bad do you think this economy will get?
The other problem we'll have during those years is civil [unrest]. There will be a big increase in crime. People are going to be hungry. People are going to be cold. There's a sense of entitlement in this country, and when a lot of people used to having things suddenly don't, everybody looks for someone to blame.

We're going through a very rough period in our history. In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression.

Need to go get me a gun and a cave, the US is doomed...Perpetual Doom and Gloom guys just serve to make headlines in times like this...

    Bookmark   November 25, 2008 at 5:54AM
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Stats for existing home sales Oct. 2007 - Oct. 2008:

In the State of Illinois sales are down 16.9%; prices down 10.1%; median $173K.

In the Chicago metro area sales are down 26%; prices down 10%; median $225K.

In Lake County (mine) sales are down 26.3%; prices down 15.1%; median $225K. All the collar counties are down in sales about the same percentage, but the Lake price decline is the worst. Cook prices are down 11.2%; Will, down 10.3%; DuPage, down 9%; McHenry, down 4.3%; Kane, down 1.5%; Kendall, down 0.1%.

We're doing worse than the Midwest as a whole: Sales down 9.1%; prices down 6.7%; median $149.4K. Not quite as bad as the West: Sales down 37.5%; prices down 27%; median $231.4K.

A Chicago realtor is quoted as saying RE is still overvalued and will have to come down more. (All info from front page story Chicago Tribune today, Nov. 25.)

    Bookmark   November 25, 2008 at 11:11AM
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dreamgarden least ONE person predicted this debacle...and was patently ignored.

Funny about that, hmm? I find it amusing to be accused of being a "purveyor of doom" when all I'm doing is posting info of a different perspective from a well respected financial authority. But you know what they say about the truth:

"The truth starts out bitter, but ends up sweet.
Lies start out sweet, but end up bitter. "

Things aren't very 'sweet' in our economy right now, but I'd rather hear the harsh, un-varnished opinions of those I respect, than continue to listen to those LYING Wall Street Fatcats, government officials, analysts, regulators, etc. who told us 'everything would be JUST fine', while the economy crumbled around us.

Martin Weiss hasn't shirked from calling it 'like it is' for many years now. I appreciate that. More so now than ever. It would be nice to hear what the original poster thinks about this article....

In any case, here is another prediction (from a non-American paper) from a Nobel Prize winning economist and a former chief of the World Bank!
A link that might be useful:

US economist calls financial crisis worst since 1930s

    Bookmark   November 26, 2008 at 1:30PM
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As the original poster you mentioned...

I've tried to stay away from your Weiss posts. He reminds me of a guy named Hal Lindsey who preached apolcolyptic scenarios back in the 70s. As time passed, Mr. Lindsey just kept on keeping was like watching a dysfunctional family pretending nothing was wrong as chaos swirled around them. Nobody questioned he always seemed to be a day late & a dollar short with his prophecies. People continued buying his writings making Hal a millionaire many times over. No matter that he presented half truths as convulted theology spun to match his attention grabbing headlines. Different subject matter. Same concept. There's always somebody new coming along that's unfamilar with Mr. Lindsey's past so now he's reinvented himself yet again & continues raking in the money from his newsletters. (Amen & Hallelujah)


    Bookmark   November 26, 2008 at 2:37PM
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Well interest rates are down. But without jobs (as I've been saying for awhile, the housing market is only a symptom) I'm not sure how much it will matter? Some people will jump, though perhaps at something lower priced than a couple of years ago. Those who know they care going to stay in one place for awhile, two income folks that feel they would be ok w/one income if they buy something more modest.

    Bookmark   November 26, 2008 at 7:58PM
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