I read an interesting article last week on CNN which quoted a survey of 'experts' regarding expectations in residential real estate market between now and 2015. I've attached the link. To see who are making the predictions, look at the embedded individual panelist expectations. Some I would trust, some, well, not so much.
I thought it might be interesting to hear GW's perpective and predictions on your particular markets. You don't have to be specific as to the identity of your particular market, but give enough information to show what type of market and region.
I'll start with the two markets with which I am familiar. I'm not a RE professional, so these are just my lay perspective based upon market watching and reading some statistics and local articles. I could be, and probably am, way off!
Market 1: This has been my hometown for the past 30 years. It is a small southern town, good schools, and nice hometown feel. Lots of families have lived here for generations, but it is also a "bedroom community" for a larger city about 40 miles commute. We really didn't have much of a bubble, just a fairly consisent, but modest year over year increase for the past 15-20 years, with maybe a blip every now and then. Compared to national statistics, housing prices and cost to build are low when compared to comparable homes in other areas. Because no there was no bubble, there was no bust. At most there was a slow down in building activity and stagnation in prices for a year or two, but no drastic drop. The market really appears to have picked up again and I'm surprised at the amount of new construction I've seen. My prediction, we're probably back to the pre "bust" trend to year over year percentage increase in values.
Market 2: This is where we have our second home, and where we plan to retire. Located in the Colordo Rockies, and home to a major ski area, it is a resort town of about 15,000 full time residents. Second homes are a large part of the market, constituting 48 percent of all residential units and about 62 percent of all residential assessed value. This market is a lagging market and has always trended a bit behind the trend nationwide. The bubble formed slower and peaked later here than in many areas. This area is still seeing price drops in most segments, although a few segments are doing slightly better than others. Sales are beginning to pick up slightly as prices find their level. Lot prices are down from between 50%-75% from the peak (which was in 2007). There is virtually no building activity. My prediction is that this market going to be slow to turn around and we'll probably see further price decreases at least through 2012, before leveling off.
Here is a link that might be useful: Expectations Survey