Forget Inflation! Market Fundamentals are Appalling

dave_donhoffJuly 15, 2008

Market Fundamentals are Appalling

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http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/27-june-1.jpg

As recommended by John Mauldin;

'Montier and Edwards speak quite forcefully about the problems they see in the market today, and they are truly Outside the Box thinkers.'

'They are, in a word, skeptics, and at this juncture most deeply skeptical of any and all notions that 'the worst is over.' The recession, which has barely begun, is more likely to be deep than shallow, market valuations are hideously expensive and the -flation policymakers should be worried about starts with de-, not in-. For their reasons, keep reading, if you dare.'

Interesting...

Cheers,

Dave Donhoff

Leverage Planner

Here is a link that might be useful: Market Fundamentals are Appalling

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lucy

Dave - maybe others won't say anything, but while you've been very helpful to people about their finances in general, this (and another one) post is more or less spam and I guess no one wants to get into it... even if the info might be good. Spam is just not done here.

    Bookmark   July 20, 2008 at 9:44AM
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dave_donhoff

Lucy,
What are you talking about? Do you know what SPAM is?

If so, how do you see my contributions as SPAMming?

Random groundless accusations are just not done here (or at least they are quite rare anymore ;~)

Cheers,
Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

    Bookmark   July 20, 2008 at 6:33PM
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lucy

It looks like you're selling your services, but if I'm wrong, then I apologize.

    Bookmark   July 21, 2008 at 7:07AM
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nycefarm_gw

No Lucy, he is not selling anything, he is educating us without personal gain. I value his opinion...

    Bookmark   July 21, 2008 at 10:48AM
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dave_donhoff

Hi Lucy,

OK... let's call a spade a shovel; YES... I am a service professional and I do sell my financial services. YES, people can (and do) decide to contact me for help after they've read my postings... and I like that ;~)

HOWEVER; if you'll actually read the content of the posts you find from me, you'll see that I am very disciplined to *NEVER* sell, promote nor solicit my services in the communities.

I figure that just being generous with answers to questions, and contributing the raw and polished information that I read & find valuable daily, is enough for some people to see who I am, and perhaps decide if they want to find me & chat with me more, ofboards, whenever that time comes.

The post here you are responding to has no content about me whatsoever... and I hope it didn't offend you.

Cheers,
Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

    Bookmark   July 21, 2008 at 1:43PM
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dreamgarden

nycefarm-"No Lucy, he is not selling anything, he is educating us without personal gain. I value his opinion..."

I do too.

    Bookmark   July 22, 2008 at 11:57AM
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behaviorkelton

Deflation? Wow! That would certainly be a change in direction.

So who benefits (or survives) in a deflationary market?

Does this mean a dollar would be worth more?

Is deflation more worrisome than inflation?
(maybe I should read that link... but it looks too much like a "come on")

    Bookmark   July 22, 2008 at 8:45PM
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ian_bc_north

Hello Kelton,
In a deflationary environment people put off major purchases because they expect prices to fall.
The result is lower economic activity and higher unemployment.
In a deflationary environment cash is king.
The people who benefit are those who get a regular income in cash which will buy more.
The last period of extended deflation in North America was the Great Depression which for many is the defining economic disaster of the last 100 years in North America.

I would suggest that for people in Zimbabwe inflation is part of the defining economic disaster there.

    Bookmark   July 23, 2008 at 1:39PM
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dave_donhoff

Hi Kelton,

So who benefits (or survives) in a deflationary market?

Be definition, a deflationary environment is when hard assets become less valuable relative to cash. Thus, those who are more liquid in cash or its equivalents benefit.

Does this mean a dollar would be worth more?

Exactly... and in some markets you can already see this in spades.

In San Diego, for example, if you have $500,000 you can buy almost twice as much home today than 3 years ago. That directly makes the dollar itself twice as valuable (in that market.)

Is deflation more worrisome than inflation?

Nope... just different. If you understand it, you can manage your life within it.

NOW: BEWARE!!!
We are almost never in a UNIVERSALLY deflationary nor inflationary environment!

Currently we can see a bifurcation of inflation/deflation in some areas, and an almost neutral environment in others.

Consumed commodities are experiencing INFLATION... which is to say that a dollar buys less gasoline, less wheat, and less bananas.

Hard assets are experiencing DEFLATION (as in the above San Diego example,) HOWEVER... the degree of deflation is relative to the local areas in the case of real estate.

The measured response by the Federal Reserve and Treasury (namely, the non-manipulation of short term interest rates,) has it appear that soft-asset deflation and hard asset inflation are roughly cancelling each other out enough to avoid monkeying from the high-authority side.

IN SHORT, the markets ACTUALLY seem to be sorting themselves out in just about the most orderly and organized fashion we could have ever have hoped for, where the sequential deflationary popping of the stock markets in 2000, and then the real estate and credit markets in 2007/2008 are being counterbalanced by fairly non-catastrophic inflation in the consumer markets.

cheers,
Dave Donhoff
Leverage Planner

    Bookmark   July 23, 2008 at 3:02PM
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stinkbone

But in reference to the original post here...congress is bailing out the morgage mess with fixed FHA loans up to 115% LTV; as early as today congress will vote on regulating oil markets to curb speculation which may bring the cost down to $80 a barrel; my citigroup stock has gone up 50% in a week. Maybe the worst is over...

    Bookmark   July 24, 2008 at 3:13AM
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