The Stock Market wants to go up

behaviorkeltonApril 16, 2008

As an unsophisticated financial guy, I somehow feel the need to remark on the stock market!

So with all the rather depressing financial news, it just looks like the market doesn't want to trend to much lower. Watching the news and CNBC, there just seems to be one devastating tidbit of financial news after another with all sorts of uncertainty. Yet, the market seems to be hovering around the current lows.

On the other hand, the market seems to be seeking any reason at all to go up. Of course, there hasn't been many reasons to go up... but the market just seems like it is ready to explode with enthusiasm if and when the economy even *seems* to be changing directions.

Does anyone else notice this?

Unless you have the notion that we are heading for a financial Armageddon, these seem to be the kind of times that can make for nice profits.

Everyone is an armchair analyst!

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Hello again behavior Kelton,

You could be right.

With about one more cash amount to invest, I may borrow some to invest ...

... after a while.

I'm not in any hurry.

And I have a stock that I expect to get sold out of, soon, which would allow me to pay off the loan soon and make some other investments later.

Fom what I hear of the housing situation, I don't think that things are about to turn around that soon.

As for "explosion" ... maybe.

Maybe not.

If it happens, fine.

I'm not counting on it. Not right away, in any case ... I'll be surprised if it does.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   April 16, 2008 at 6:45PM
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Head on over to Yahoo Finance. Get the quote for INDU (the Dow Industrial Average). Look at the chart. Then change it's view and look at it for 6 months. The thing that concerns me about it wanting to go up is that each successive high over this time frame is lower than the one before it. I would love for the market to go up; but I get the feeling that it's losing a bit of steam.

Looking out 6-24 months, if we have a Democrat as our next president, I think it's going to be safe to assume that the tax structure in the US is going to change, and that it'll change so that corporate profits are hurt.

So, while I know the market obviously goes up and down, and while I know that global demand will put keep corporations selling their goods, I'm not so sure that we're ready to reach 14000+ very soon.

All of this thought process is out the window if we have a Republican president.

    Bookmark   April 16, 2008 at 8:26PM
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Anything like the one you have now?

o j

    Bookmark   April 17, 2008 at 2:35PM
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oj....never have you posted so few words that packed such a punch!!

    Bookmark   April 17, 2008 at 2:54PM
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Chemocurl zn5b/6a Indiana


    Bookmark   April 18, 2008 at 12:10AM
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Well, when the last Democrat President took office in January 1993, the DJIA was 3,435. When he left office 8 years later in January 2001, the DJIA stood at 9,878, a gain of 287%. You basically would have almost tripled your money in that time. In the 7 years and 3 months since we've had a Republican President, the DJIA has been able to crawl up to 12,849, a compounded return of barely 3% per anum. In other words, while the so-called stock market friendly Republicans have been in charge, people would have gotten a better return on their money by keeping it in a bank account.

Somehow, I won't be too worried about my investments if we manage to put a Democrat back in the White House.

    Bookmark   April 19, 2008 at 2:28PM
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Yeah, imagine where the stock market would be if we still had a budget surplus, LOL! Bush sure managed to spend that one fast enough, along with more besides.....

    Bookmark   April 19, 2008 at 8:27PM
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So, we're imagining where we'd be if 9-11 hadn't happened ??
Gee, I wonder what would the economy have done had it not been for Pearl Harbor?? Maybe if Eli Whitney hadn't invented the cotton gin we would still be wearing leather clothes.....
Woulda , shoulda , coulda ......

pathetic pondering.

    Bookmark   April 19, 2008 at 8:37PM
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I wouldn't let this past week's "performance" let you think that there's a trend. It was witching Friday, and institutions have a way of not letting front month options expire underwater.

There have been too many false starts in the past. Back in the Spring of 2002, many were optimistic. Then October of 2002 is where the market bottomed out, with the neophytes' beloved CSCO trading at $8 and change.

    Bookmark   April 19, 2008 at 8:54PM
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Upwards of three years ago I attended a reunion of folks who, as missionaries in Korea, many of us had helped some of the hundreds of thousands of refugees get their lives back in some kind of approximation of order after that horrible Korean War. Some job!

One of the activities was a discussion of U.S. foreign policy, with some folks who had diplomatic and military connections. At the end of that meeting I spoke to one of the leaders, moving my hands with opened palms up and down like elevators in a bank of elevators, saying that it had appeared to me increasingly in the time following 9-11 that, had the U.S. treated Israel and the Palestinians in a much more even-handed fashion over the past 55 years or so ...

... that it was my increasing conviction that those airplanes never would have hit those towers.

Looking at me rather searchingly, he asked whether our conversation was off the record.

When I assured him that it was, he told me, with some firmness in his voice, "I agree with you ... 100%!".

When I was in University, I think, I read a book proposing the idea that one can't beat an idea with a gun.

You can only beat an idea with a better idea ... skilfully disseminated (and with some perceptiveness and compasssion) ...

... not with a gun.

It seems to me that the way to beat Osama is to show ourselves such friends of many of the ordinary people in his part of the world that when he disseminates the idea that the people in that part of the world should kill us, they'll refuse, saying that we've been proving ourselves their friends.

Like the Marshall Plan did in Europe, after World War II.

ole joyful

    Bookmark   April 19, 2008 at 9:22PM
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OJ - couldn't agree with you more!

    Bookmark   April 19, 2008 at 10:14PM
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